Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Former Prime Minister Confesses Real UK Inflation is 10%, Triple Official Rate of 3.8%

Economics / Inflation Jul 15, 2008 - 03:49 PM GMT

By: Mark_OByrne

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold finished trading in New York yesterday at $972.10, up $12.00 and silver was up to $19.15, up 38 cents. Gold rose in trading in Asia before further rises in early European trading. Gold is now up some 7% in the last 5 trading days (from below $920 to over $983) and in normal circumstances one would expect a correction and consolidation. However, these are not normal circumstances.


Gold has rallied again on dollar weakness, oil strength and safe haven demand due to macroeconomic and systemic risk. Macroeconomic in the form of the deepening financial and economic crisis and geopolitical risk in the form of continuing tensions between Israel and Iran.

Oil is up 0.90% < Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - AUG08> and the dollar has fallen again (Euro/US Dollar +0.78%) and is below support at 1.60 to the euro. A close below 1.60 could see the dollar quickly sell off and could see a move to 1.70 in just a few weeks.

Risk aversion is of prime importance and international stock markets have fallen sharply on continuing concerns regarding the health of the U.S. financial system and economy.  The Nikkei and the Hang Seng were down by some 2% and 4% respectively as were all other Asian stock markets. In Europe, stock markets are also down with the FTSE, CAC and DAX all down some 2% to 2.5%.

ETFs are seeing very significant inflows as investors hedge themselves against increasing inflation and systemic risk. With no end in sight to the present crisis, this safe haven demand looks set to continue for the foreseeable future and should see us surpass the March highs of $1,030 per ounce in the coming days.  Our 2008 forecast of gold surpassing $1,200 per ounce looks set to happen as soon as early Autumn.

Also, despite sharply slowing economic growth in most economies internationally, inflation continues to surge. This was seen in the UK inflation statistics today.

Sir John Major Says Government Inflation is Massively Underestimated - Real Inflation of Some 10%
The U.K.'s official government inflation rate rose to a record high in June data from the Office for National Statistics showed this morning. The consumer price index rose 0.7% on the month and 3.8% on the year in June, the highest annual rate since records began in January 1997 and second consecutive month that it has been more than one percentage point above the BOE's 2.0% target.

There are increasing questions about the reliability of government economic statistics including inflation figures.

Sir John Major said yesterday that the true annual rate of inflation is as much as 10 per cent and warned that Britain was on the brink of recession or may already be in recession. The former Conservative prime minister forecast more job losses and bankruptcies and accused the Government of under-stating the real impact of price rises. He said changes to the way inflation is calculated had been "extremely misleading", with increasing food prices and heating bills not reflected by the official statistics on the cost of living.

With inflation soaring internationally and the UK and US governments underestimating inflation by 2 or 3 times the actual rate, it is clear that inflation is not some ‘flash in the pan' phenomenon soon to miraculously disappear. Concerted action including higher interest rates by central banks will now be needed in order to tame the mortal threat to all paper currencies that is inflation.

Today's Data and Influences
Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony is in the spotlight today, with market participants looking for any clues for the Feds future interest rate policy direction.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.31/19.36 per ounce (1215 GMT).

PGMs

Platinum is trading at $2010/2020 per ounce (1215 GMT).
Palladium is trading at $452/458 per ounce (1215  GMT).

By Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director

Gold Investments
63 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin 2
Ireland
Ph +353 1 6325010
Fax  +353 1 6619664
Email info@gold.ie
Web www.gold.ie
Gold and Silver Investments Limited
No. 1 Cornhill
London,
EC3V 3ND
United Kingdom
Ph +44 (0) 207 0604653
Fax +44 (0) 207 8770708
Email info@www.goldassets.co.uk
Web www.goldassets.co.uk

Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. have been awarded the MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.

Mission Statement
Gold and Silver Investments Limited hope to inform our clientele of important financial and economic developments and thus help our clientele and prospective clientele understand our rapidly changing global economy and the implications for their livelihoods and wealth.
We focus on the medium and long term global macroeconomic trends and how they pertain to the precious metal markets and our clienteles savings, investments and livelihoods. We emphasise prudence, safety and security as they are of paramount importance in the preservation of wealth.

Financial Regulation: Gold & Silver Investments Limited trading as Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator as a multi-agency intermediary. Our Financial Regulator Reference Number is 39656. Gold Investments is registered in the Companies Registration Office under Company number 377252 . Registered for VAT under number 6397252A . Codes of Conduct are imposed by the Financial Regulator and can be accessed at www.financialregulator.ie or from the Financial Regulator at PO Box 9138, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Property, Commodities and Precious Metals are not regulated by the Financial Regulator

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

All the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Gold & Silver Investments Limited and not those of the Perth Mint. They do not reflect the views of the Perth Mint and the Perth Mint accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Mark O'Byrne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules