Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19
Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper - 7th Oct 19
Stock Market Back to Neutral - 7th Oct 19
Free Market Capitalism: Laughably Predictable - 7th Oct 19
Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver - 7th Oct 19
Gold and Silver Taking a Breather - 7th Oct 19
Check Engine Warning Light ECU Dealer Diagnostic Cost - Land Rover Discovery Sport - 6th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Crude Oil Price Action & Forecast

Commodities / Crude Oil Mar 21, 2016 - 04:38 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodities

Recently, Light Crude has seen a dramatic 35%+ increase in value.  As the current price continue to flirt with $40 per barrel, the likelihood of a further price rise is on everyone’s mind.  With recent lows near $26 per barrel, what is the possibility that oil will form a base above $30 and attempt a rally?

Historically, the 2009 low price for oil was $33.20.  This level should be viewed as a key level of support for current price action.  The recent price rotation below this level is a sign that oil prices are under extreme pressure in the current economic environment with a supply glut and slower than expected demand.


It is my opinion that the price of oil will continue to reflect the supply/demand aspects of the global markets in relation to global economic activity.  Thus, my analysis is that Oil will likely attempt to retest support, near $30 or below, in the immediate future in direct relation to continued supply production in conjunction with slower global demand.

(Baltic Dry Index Chart – LongTerm)
The BDI Index continues to attempt to push to new lows.  This is a strong indication that global exports and international demand from consumers and business is continuing to diminish.
oila

Crude Oil Analysis & Trade Signals: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

(DOWT – Transportation Chart)
Even though the DOW Transportation Index has risen recently, the current direction is decisively bearish in indicates the next level of support is near 6265 – clearly 1400 points below current levels.
oilb

(Baltic Dry Index Recent)
The longer the BDI continues to push to new lows, the more likely we are to see continued contraction in demand for commodities and global exports.  Thus, with the continued supply production throughout the globe and continued global contraction, one could expect that Oil prices will continue to be under pressure globally.
oilc

The simple mechanics of the equation are that certain ME and foreign countries require continued income from oil production/sales.  As the continued decline in Oil prices creates economic pressure, these countries have little alternative but to continue producing and selling as any price to feed their need for dollars.  This creates a mechanism that propels a vicious cycle or over production and sales in an attempt to generate dollars that are desperately needs to fund a relatively mature economy.

As all things are in a constant state of flux, it become important to understand that price rotation in the Oil market will likely continue between $28 and $42 for a period of time.  This is really a traders market in the sense that a nearly rotation level this large, in percentage relation, is available for all traders.  Be cautious of rallies as they may be short-lived. I expect a number of weeks of rotation near $36 ppb followed by a lower price rotation back to near $25 ppb between April 5th and May 5th.

After that price rotation lower, then I expect one of two targets to be tested, $21 ppb or $37 ppb.  It all depends on how the global markets are performing in a month or two.

(CL Chart)
oild

(XOI Chart)
oile

Right now, expect continued price rotation between $42 ppb and $28 ppb till shortly after April 5th.  Then expect much larger price rotation till after May 5th.  At that point, we’ll have to see how the global economic factors are playing out to make further price expectations.

I expect there to be some big trades around crude oil for both short term swing trades and long term trend trades but the market just is not yet here.

Learn & Trade With My Daily Video Analysis & Trades: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Join my email list FREE and get my next article which I will show you about a major opportunity in bonds and a rate spike – www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method.  For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets.  Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules