Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

UK Economic Growth Evaporating, Worse to Come than OBR Budget 2016 Forecasts

Economics / UK Economy Mar 17, 2016 - 05:10 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

The governments fantasy projections on the economy made by their Office for Economic Propaganda (OBR) shortly following the Conservatives May 2015 election victory are fast unraveling as the OBR's latest propaganda nudged expected growth for 2016 lower to 2% from 2.4%, and growth for 2017 lower to 2.2% from 2.5%, whilst maintaining more distant year overly optimistic forecasts.


However, as per my recent analysis of the UK economy that despite today's revision lower, OBR GDP expecyatopms still have a lot further to fall before they come anywhere near to that which is likely to be most probable:

06 Feb 2016 - UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 )

UK Economy

The oil price collapse has triggered a huge transfer of wealth from England to Scotland to prevent a collapse of the Scottish economy following what will probably turn out to be the slow death of the North Sea oil industry which requires an oil price of approx $60 just to break even let alone the likes of $100+ to finance new expensive operations that the fantasy land Scottish Nationalists had propagandised during the 2014 Independence Referendum and delusionally continue to cling onto to this day when the truth is that Scotland's oil party is well and truly over!

Nevertheless the support for Scotland, a weak european economy and evaporating Chinese demand are all acting to drag down UK GDP to imminently a sub 2% rate. However, whilst a recession does not appear to be on the cards the slowdown in momentum is such that the UK looks set to dip to an annualised growth rate of below 1.5% and may even touch bottom at 1% which compares against the engineered mini-election boom of 2.8% in the run upto the May 2015 general election.

Therefore, as usually tends to be the case for post election economic slowdowns, then the next 2 years are likely to be weak (2016, 2017) with GDP probably going to average at a rate of about 1.6% for each year which compares against the Bank of England's economic propaganda expectations of 2.5% for 2016 and 2.7% for 2017.

Whilst the OBR's growth forecasts have today been revised lower to :

  • 2016 : 2.0% from 2.4
  • 2017 : 2.2% from 2.5
  • 2018 : 2.1% from 2.4
  • 2019 : 2.1% from 2.4
  • 2020 : 2.1% from 2.3

Therefore expect further revisions lower towards my forecast of 1.6% for 2016 and 2017, the consequences of which will be for far higher borrowing that will literally blow apart the Conservative governments fantasy expectations for a £10 billion budget surplus for 2020-21, which is just not going to happen as I earlier covered in UK Government Debt Propaganda Continues as OBR Revises Borrowing Higher,. (17 Mar 2016) as illustrated by the below graph.

For more on the UK economy and prospects for interest rates for over the next 2 years then see my recent in-depth analysis and accompanying video:

https://youtu.be/75y5aLczdy0

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for the following forthcoming analysis -

  • US Interest Rates and Economy
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • US House Prices Detailed Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

R.E.B
17 Mar 16, 21:44
Real UK GDP?

What is the UK's real GDP? We all know that the way GDP is calculated is a joke. The biggest laugh of all came last year when the government announced they were including the illicit drug trade and the sex industry in GDP numbers. So while the statisticians sit around trying to guess how many wraps of smack changed hands last quarter or how many ladies of the night did X amount of business, something totally different happens in the real world. Also lets take out unproductive government spending too. So our debt to GDP ratio is probably sky high, but that only serves to reinforce your basic point that printing money is the only answer they have.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules