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U.S. House Prices Forecast 2016, Crash or Continuing Housing Bull Market?

Housing-Market / US Housing Mar 14, 2016 - 06:08 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The most recent release of US House prices data for December 2015 (Case Shiller 10 City Composite) continues to show little change at 197.21 against 197.40 of 4 months earlier which means that US house price inflation has spent virtually the whole of 2015 within a tight range of between +5% and +4%, which whilst stable is nevertheless a far cry from early 2014 that had house price inflation galloping ahead at near 14% per annum as illustrated by the below momentum graph.


U.S. House Prices Crash Doomsday

Despite house prices having ended 2015 about 5% higher, apparently the US housing market is still on the precipice of a bear market, collapse, crash or even worse! And one does not have to look far for such prevalent housing market doom. Even much of the mainstream press is infected with such expectations as pundits have taken the prospects of a US economic slowdown as further signs for the imminent demise of the US housing market latching onto the likes of Saudi Arabia's war on the US shale oil industry, China's fast decelerating economy, and then we have the prospects for further Fed interest rates hikes during 2015. The only problem for the doom merchants is that they have been banging the same drum for the duration of the housing bull market that has literally ridden a wall of worry for near 4 years now since the early 2012 bottom.

A perma doom message that was once more found to be prevalent throughout 2015 -

The Times - 4th June 2015 - US homeowners 'should expect fall in property prices'

American homeowners who are struggling to make up for value lost during the financial crisis can expect recent gains in property prices to reverse...

Where house prices are concerned, rather than listing a long series of pronouncements from those who in large part will be unknown to most readers, I will just focus on the widely recognised King of U.S. housing market data, Prof. Robert Shiller who has been consistent in warning not just against high housing market valuations but also for stocks.

Robert Shiller: “Home Prices Could Decline in the Next Year or Two” - 27th Oct 2015

“A year ago our Index was going up at a 10% rate, now it’s a five percent rate,” said Shiller. “This is not the stock market, this is the housing market, and that suggests there might be a lowering, and possibly even declines in home prices in the next year or two.”

Rate hike needed to pop bubbles: Robert Shiller - 1st June 2015

The U.S. Federal Reserve should consider lifting interest rates sooner rather than later to tackle speculative bubbles in the housing and stock markets, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Monday.

"I'm thinking they (Fed policy makers) ought to be considering that, because that is the mistake they made in the past," the Yale University professor told CNBC Europe's "Squawk Box" when asked whether he believed the Fed should raise interest rates soon or later on.

"They didn't deal with the housing bubble that led to the present crisis. There's a suggestion in my mind that they should be raising rates now, (but) unfortunately the latest news looks a little weak on the demand side," Shiller added.

To further illustrate the point, Robert Shiller's recent comments are pretty similar to those he was stating 18 months ago -

CNBC - 19th August 2014.

“How can it be that people think we can’t get a riskless return in real terms for 30 years? There’s something bizarre. That looks a little bit like a bubble as well. So the whole thing might correct—both bonds and stocks,” Shiller said.

Shiller said he’s also been “kind of surprised” by the housing market, which is up around 25% since the 2009 low (and even more in some cities).

“We’re seeing a sort of boom in the housing market,” he said. “We’ve got stocks and bonds highly priced and now we’re starting to see maybe housing going in the same direction. It’s like everything is pricey.”

Shiller looped back to his weekend article, which laid some but not all of the blame on the idea that anxiety can actually spur investors to grab on to any available asset, pushing up prices.

“Worries about the future can actually cause asset markets to be priced highly … When the Titanic was going down, people would pay a fortune for anything that floats. I’m exaggerating, of course, but that might be the situation we’re in now,” he said.

So what do academics repeatedly miss ? They miss the significance of MOMENTUM and SENTIMENT on TREND which is ACCUMULATIVE as I have covered many, many times over many years.

19 Aug 2013 - UK House Prices Bull Market Soaring Momentum

What Academics and Journalists Will Never Understand About Markets

In having immersed by myself in the markets for 30 years now, I know that what many academics tend to take for granted rarely matches reality. Whilst I covered many aspects of trading markets in my last ebook (Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond - Free Download). However in terms of economic trends what academics will always fail to grasp is that markets are NOT driven by fundamentals but by SENTIMENT and it is SENTIMENT that CREATES the fundamentals! Which is why the academic economists rarely have any real clue as to what is going in the markets because they are nearly always looking in the WRONG direction i.e. they are looking at the CAUSE rather than the EFFECT, as in reality it is the EFFECT that makes itself manifest in the price charts long before the CAUSE appears in the economic data that academics focus upon, which is why the SAME economic data can and is used by economists and pseudo-economist (journalists) such as that which we see on TV news shows to explain EITHER price rises OR falls.

You can only know the markets IF you TRADE the markets! The pseudo and academics economists will never get you on the right side of trends years ahead of the herd, in fact most press media commentators will be some of the LAST people to jump onboard trends, usually just before they end!

Momentum Drives Housing Market Sentiment and Economic Growth

As house price rises continue to accelerate, many people sat on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall or even crash will realise that it is just not going to happen, and in their despair at the relentless accelerating trend of rising prices, in increasing numbers will feel no choice but to jump onboard the housing bull market as a they see the houses they have been viewing sold and asking prices trending ever higher.

As house prices rise, home owners see the value of their houses rise £x thousands per month, in many cases by more than their salaries, this will encourage many to borrow and spend more, and save less which will meet the governments primary objective for inflating the economy by means of the housing market. Everyone will be playing the game of how much has my house value increased by, a quick analysis of my own housing portfolio (based in Zoopla estimates) shows a 5.5% increase in housing wealth over just the past 6 months! Does this make me feel richer, more willing to spend? Well, being only human, YES it does!

So enough of the academic noise that the mainstream press tends to regurgitate as academic theories and sales pitches from the financial industry, instead here is my real take on the current state of the U.S. housing market in terms of PRICE momentum for at the end of the day all that matters is what the PRICE is doing.

U.S. House Prices Trend Forecast 2013-2016

My long standing forecast for US house prices covering the period from November 2012 to March 2016 is now entering its last few months:

12 Jan 2013 - U.S. Housing Real Estate Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2013 to 2016)

US House Prices Forecast 2013 to 2016

US House Prices Forecast Conclusion - As you read this, the embryonic nominal bull market of 2012 is morphing into a real terms bull market of 2013, with each subsequent year expected to result in an accelerating multi-year trend that will likely see average prices rise by over 30% by early 2016, which translates into a precise house prices forecast based on the most recent Case-Shiller House Price Index (CSXR) of 158.8 (Oct 2012 - released 26th Dec 2012) targeting a rise to 207 by early 2016 (+30.4%).

The in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast was also published as a video during Jan 2013.

As a reminder, that at the time of the publication of my forecast popular market commentators such as Peter Schiff where strongly bearish on the outlook for U.S. Housing market as illustrated by his video of January 2013 -

"Prices have to fall, they are still much too high, and I think any body who is clinging to the hope that the real estate market has bottomed really should rethink those assumptions"

"You don't want to buy anything related to real estate...., a lot of shorting opportunities there...., housing is not going to recover its going to fall for years" - Peter Schiff - Jan 2013

And as far I can see has consistently remained bearish for the duration of the U.S. housing bull market.

18th May 2015 - Peter Schiff: Monetary Death is Coming!Kitco News

CK: You are notorious for making bold predictions. Of course, we can go back and look at those famous predictions you made leading up to that housing crisis in market crash in ’07. Is 2015 shaping up to be a disaster year or is it too soon to know at this point?

PS: Well, 2015, we are not quite half over yet. My guess is that and this is not going to be the year when it hits the fan. I do believe though that when the Fed does not raise interest rates the dollar will start to decline. But since it had such a big rally it has got a long way to drop, I think, before it would get into a situation that would cause a potential currency crisis which is where I think the end game is. But we could have something like that in 2016 or 2017. But I do think the end is near as far as when this crisis is going to occur.

But it is certainly possible that something happens in 2015. It is just hard to handicap it because you have got so many people that have no idea what is going on, and it is just a question of when are they going to open their eyes? When are they going to figure it out? In the housing market I was criticizing, pointing out the bubble, warning up the implication for years before the thing finally blew up. You just do not know how long it is going to take. Sometimes the bigger the bubbles are the longer they can last before people recognize them. Eventually, when they top, of course, the bigger they get the bigger the pop.

And most recently:

Schiff: Zero rates, QE4 by election, and real estate crash looming - 7th March 2016

Peter Schiff, predicts that the Fed will lower interest rates back to zero and begin QE4 before the November presidential elections. Schiff also believes a 2007 style crash is coming to the real estate market.

•No faith in the Central banks, they caused the last real estate bubble, and their ignorance has caused the next
•The new bubble is much larger than 2007/2008, and has already ‘popped’
•U.S. already back in recession and stocks are a bear market
•The bubble is now ‘releasing air’
•Near end of ‘NIRP disaster’

U.S. House Prices Trend Forecast Current State

The latest U.S. house prices data released for December 2015 (197.21) shows that U.S. house prices are currently showing a -2.5% deviation (202.4) against my trend forecast as it enters its final 3 months.

US Home Builders Index (XHB)

The XHB chart shows that home builder stocks tend to under perform the Dow average when house prices momentum slows and tend to out perform when house price momentum accelerates, as house price momentum has been slow for the past 4 months on the most recent data release to Dec 2015 and so as the XHB under performed. Overall the XHB is not flashing any significant warning signals of the prospects for doom being around the corner.

So yes home builder stocks are weak, but so is house price price inflation in its current range of +4% to +5% against +14% of 2 years ago, with little sign that home builders are set to outperform the Dow which implies neither to expect house price momentum to surge higher anytime soon.

Rising US Interest Rates Bad News?

Apparently the US is going to raise interest rates between 3 to 5 times this year, which has been taken by the perma doom crowd as clear harbingers of an end of the housing bull market. Whilst my take on US interest rates is pending an in-depth analysis. However, what impact are rising interest rates likely to have on the housing market? We'll rising rates are going to act as an incentive to get those who have been sat on the fence watching and waiting for house prices to FALL to BUY BEFORE MORTGAGE RATES RISE. So in effect for 2016 at least, the prospects for rising interest rates (whether they actually materialise or not) is a net POSITIVE for the US housing market, which again is contrary to the consensus view.

US House Prices Crash or Bull Market 2016?

So are the doom merchants finally about to be proven right? Are US house prices on the edge of a collapse where literally any one of number of possible bad news stories could tip house prices over the edge of a cliff ? Or is the US housing bull market likely to end 2016 with another year of decent gains?

Well, whilst my detailed multi-year trend forecast is pending completion of further inter market analysis such as on US interest rates, economy and the dollar. However, ongoing accumulative analysis does not suggest that an end of the bull market let alone a crash is on the horizon for the whole of 2016.

Whilst the momentum chart clearly demonstrates stable well supported house prices in the range of +4% to +5% and with this being an election year implies to expect marginal strength for 2016, thus targeting a gain of at least 5% for the year. So when the dust settles by the end of this year (early March 2017 when the actual data is released), US house prices will likely end 2016 with another year of stable, sustainable gains of at least +5% and probably nearer to +6%.

So 2016 looks like turning out to be being another year when the doom merchants will once more be found banging their heads against a solid bull market brick wall. However, do ensure you are subscribed to my forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast for US house prices that will once more seek to map out a multi-year trend for US house prices for at least the next 3 years as well as the following:

  • US Interest Rates and Economy
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • US House Prices Detailed Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

ECB Panic Money Printing to Save Euro-zone from Economic Collapse

A little over a month on from the Bank of Japan's panic announcement for negative interest rates and money printing. Now it was the turn of the ECB to PANIC by firing it's own inflation bazooka in what is commonly termed as the currency wars (competitive devaluations) as nations attempt to import inflation and export deflation by means of manipulating exchange rates. This weeks ECB PANIC followed euro-zone inflation turning negative again (CPI -0.2%) and with virtually the whole of southern europe in a permanent economic depression, with debt mountains continuing to balloon in a perpetual state of imminent bankruptcy of the whole of southern europe as ALL central banks ONLY really have ONE objective which is to INFLATE debt mountains away for which they CREATE INFLATION by means of MONEY PRINTING and so without inflation the debt cannot be serviced.

And so the ECB cut already negative interest rates further from -0.3% to -0.4% for deposits held at the central bank, i.e. it costs the banks money to park their deposits at the central bank. Whilst also cutting the main financing rate to zero, thus allowing the banks to borrow at 0% from the central bank. And lastly to increase the amount of QE money printing from Euro 60 billion to Euro 80 billion per month mainly aimed at buying corporate bonds on top of government bonds (debt) thus forcing market interest rates lower by flooding the markets with billions of freshly printed euros (electronic) each month.

So what's going to be the REAL consequence of the ECB announcement ? We'll look at the stock markets, look at the housing markets because as has been the case for ALL QE announcements so will it be for the ECB's of INFLATING ASSET PRICES! Which means the perma bears are likely going to waste another year banging their heads against easy money driven bull market brick walls.

However, the problem at the heart of the euro-zone remains as I have literally voiced for the whole of this decade for the fundamental fact that the whole of southern europe and even France cannot compete against Germany without competitive currency devaluations which they are unable to do because they all use the SAME currency and so their economies are relentlessly being ground into dust, the only real solution is for the euro-zone to breakup into several smaller currency blocks. Whilst the alternative to this is for a full fledged political union which the euro-crat elite favour so that transfer payments from the likes of Germany take place to virtually the whole of the rest of the euro-zone in perpetuity, something that the German people are very unlikely to allow to happen for the obvious ultimate hyperinflationary consequences.

11 May 2010 - E.U. $1 Trillion Bailout, Detonates Nuclear Option of Printing Money to Monetize PIGS Debt

EURO II ?

This, first of a series of money printing debt monetization bailouts puts the Euro firmly on a trend towards high inflation as are all fiat currencies, i.e. the fundamentals of the Euro block composed of many small weak economies that cannot devalue internally against highly competitive strong economies will still remain. The only possible solution is for a Euro II, i.e. split the Euro into two currency blocks one for the weak that suffer higher inflation and interest rates and the more competitive countries as part of the Euro II block (could just be Germany on its own?) which would act as a safety valve in times of economic crisis that demands internal currency devaluations.

29 Jun 2011 - Bankrupt Greece Blackmails Europe, Bailout or Euro Zone Dies, Global Financial System Collapse

Which means the tax payers of Germany and France are effectively trapped into a lose, lose situation, where the only solution is for either collapse of the euro currency (savers wiped out) or for total political, economic and monetary union which means permanent financing of states such as Greece by means of internal transfer payments as occurs in nation states where wealthier areas are taxed to subsidise the poorer areas (UK example - London / South East subsidises most of the rest of the country).

And it is into this never ending saga of the european union jumping from one panic to the next where each results in more centralisation that the REMAIN referendum camp wants to drag Britain deeper into, a european union / euro-zone that have been teetering on the edge of collapse for 8 years now! Constantly adopting ever more panic measures and powers in the hands of un-elected officials so as to try to keep kicking the can further down the road that once more illustrates that the european union / euro-zone is utterly dysfunctional and ultimately heading for a very messy breakup which is one of the key reasons why Britain needs to vote to exit the european union as soon as possible, before the SHTF as illustrated by my recent series of videos (click to watch) -

 

Turkey Blackmails Europe With Migrants War

And continuing with the theme of the European Union in permanent crisis, the latest news is that the Turkish totalitarian regime headed by their very own version of Czar Putin, Erdoğan, who the people of Turkey affectionately refer to as Golam, have finally succeeded in their year long building blackmail of the European Union as Turkey successfully wages an ever worsening migrant war against the EU, a EU that lacks a firm centre to make tough decisions which regimes such as Turkey can quite easily bend in their favour.


And so today it looks like that a gullible clueless bureaucratic EU has succumbed to virtually every Turkish blackmail demand that to avoid a further doubling in the Migrants War flows into the EU via Turkey that currently stands at TEN times that of a year ago, will now be forced to pay a demanded Euro 6 billion, doubling form the amount demanded just a few weeks ago of which approx Euro 700 million will be extorted form the UK. All of which is under the guise of helping the migrants despite all of the cash rather than going to the migrant camps instead will go to the Turkish regime, 90% of which is likely to be siphoned off by the Turkish Elite.

Turkey Profiting from Refugees

Turkey's front men and women can be seen pumping out propaganda a across the gullible broadcast media, one of hosting 2 million refugees whilst conveniently ignoring the fact that Turkey is PROFITING from the migrants, all the way from the Turkish government siphoning off state donations meant for the refugee camps to the hundreds of small enterprises producing and selling FAKE life jackets, to charging refugees RENT, for crowded accommodations. And not forgetting the Turkish people smugglers who are generating over euro 2 billion per annum in fees charged for smuggling migrants into Greece.

So as the most recent news illustrates, do not be under any illusion about the game Turkey is playing both in terms of profiting from the refugees and then using them to blackmail Europe into attaining billions more and visa free access for 80 million turks.

Turkey Migration Apocalypse Starting 2016

Turkey is demanding that literally within days of Britians EU Referendum vote in June that ALL 80 million turks should be allowed visa free movement of travel to the EU in exchange for better control of the 1 million or so of economic migrants that are expected to head for the EU via Turkey this year. EIGHTY MILLION allowed free movement to travel which WILL BE for WORK within the EU that would amount to a migrant apocalypse that will make today's crisis look like a picnic! As for instance in Britain 4 million poles would soon to be supplemented by at least 1 million Turks!

This will be disastrous for the British people as wages and quality of life will be further DRIVEN towards third world levels of the likes of Greece, that itself has flooded Britain with at least 250,000 economic migrants.

Turkey Migration Route

What the baldrick's at the EU have failed to comprehend is the fact that following visa free access for 80 million Turks that a new industry will soon spring up in Turkey of Turkish officials profiting from selling false Turkish ID documents to the migrant refugees just as today they sell fake life jackets. Therefore ironically today's EU agreement with Turkey rather than reducing the migrant flows, will instead effectively open the gates of hell as virtually EVERY migrant will then be able to enter the EU with false Turkish documents.

Therefore Turkey along with Czar Putin's Russia are using migrants as a weapon of war against an inept european union, where one seeks to extort from whilst the the other seeks to destroy.

This just confirms what I voiced many months ago, that the european union may not even survive until Britain holds it's referendum, which could go bust in spectacular style as a consequence of one Panic measure too far.

23 Sep 2015 - Poland, Czech, Slovakia and Hungary Refugee Hypocrisy After Flooding UK with 4 Million Economic Migrants

The bottom line is that the migration crisis as did just a few weeks ago the euro debt crisis illustrate that the European Union is BROKEN and is trending towards an apocalypse of sorts the magnitude of which cannot be discerned at this point in time. So this is a wake up call for the people of Britain to vote to LEAVE THE E.U. before it starts to disintegrate in unpredictable and probably very violent ways!

And remember that BrExit will not just mean freedom for the people of Britain but also the start of freedom for the peoples of the whole of Europe as BrExit should mark the start of the END of the European Project before it fully morphs into a EUSSR superstate.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for the following forthcoming analysis -

  • US Interest Rates and Economy
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • US House Prices Detailed Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54414.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

upwarddog
03 May 16, 16:00
US House Prices Multi-year Forecast

Hi Nadeem, looking forward to your US House Prices multi-year forecast that as of March was forthcoming. When will this analysis be completed? Thank you for your continued spot-on work as always.


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