Each successive high has been stopped multiple times at the Broadening Flag trendline. Wave (c) of [y] consists of 17 waves, which is a very extended impulsive wave.

Tomorrow is day 43 from the January 20 low, a Primary Cycle Pivot day. It appears that we may have our Primary Cycle top after all, but measured from a prior low instead of the February 11 low.

. TNX spiked higher this morning, but drifted back near breakeven this afternoon.

ZeroHedge reports,, “Over the past several days, in addition to the ongoing bear market rally in the S&P500, another dramatic move has been the impressive slide in Treasury prices, manifesting itself in the following spike in 10Y yields:

This move has prompted rates traders to wonder if the selling was organic, if somewhat panicked, unwinding of long positions or just an influx in new shorts, whether due to macro considerations or as rate-locks as a slew of new Investment Grade issuance comes to market.

Courtesy of Stone McCarthy and Credit Agricole, both of whom point out our favorite repo market "stress" indicator, the "specialness" level of the 10Y, we now have the answer: as of this morning, there has been an unprecedented spike in new shorts manifesting itself in a plunge in the repo rate on the 10Y alone even as all other points on the curve remain largely unchanged.”

That makes a lot of sense, traders have taken their shorts off the SPX and gone short the UST.

I’ll write the Mid-Week Report this evening.

Regards,

Tony

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