Disturbing Global Shift Toward Financial Conservatism - Global Markets 2016
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Mar 01, 2016 - 05:08 AM GMTBy: EWI
An excerpt from our new State of the Global Markets Report -- 2016 Edition
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Our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has been tracking a steady global shift to greater financial conservatism over the last several months.
As we noted in October, the long duration of the transition from a "risk on" to a "risk off" attitude suggests that the next decline will "go deeper and last longer than that of 2007-2009," which was the biggest bear market since the Great Depression.
The relationship between the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the MSCI World Index on the following chart shows a trend away from risk that will gradually widen into a trend out of all equities.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index comprises riskier stocks, and it made a countertrend rally high in September 2014.
The blue-chip World Index comprises shares in more developed countries, and it made its all-time high in May of this year.
The current rally shows how much the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is lagging. In fact, it retraced only about a third of its most recent decline while the MSCI World Index retraced two-thirds of the sell-off from its May high.
Originally published Nov. 6, 2015.
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline A Disturbing Global Shift Toward Financial Conservatism. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
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