SPX appears to be stalling at 1947.29, very close to a 50% Fib retracement (1946.92). That also comes out to nearly an exact 8.6 days of rally after 13.5 days of decline. If my Cycles Model is accurate, it anticipates 8.6 days of decline, suggesting a low on Thursday morning, February 11.

VIX also made a new Master Cycle low today at 19.67. The Master Cycle low appeared to be in on Friday, but the VIX beat the Friday low by 4 ticks this afternoon. The ramp in VIX this morning threw me.

The NYSE Hi-Lo Index made a new high today. I had been paying it scant attention, to my detriment. It would have given us a more accurate reading on the rally and its potential turn. It is still a lagging indicator, but may have kept us in neutral, at worst, for a little while longer.

TNX has been bouncing today, trying to fill the gap. There seems to be some bleeding of liquidity back into risk assets, but a failure to close the gap is bearish.

Regards,

Tony

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