SPX overshot its mid-cycle resistance, which is not unusual. The retracement lasted exactly 51.6 hours (12 X 4.3), which was longer than I had expected. The retracement amount was 116.43 points, which amounted to a 43.2% bounce from the low.

ZeroHedge writes, “Confused by today's events? Don't worry - so is everyone else. Here is a note from Citi FX' Brent Donnelly noting that while on one hand "almost everyone I talk to wants to fade this move; it’s just a matter of how long to wait before going the other way" on the other "this smacks of confirmation bias when a market is so bearish."

His words of caution: "Be prepared for all sorts of insanity today as the market tries to wrap its collective head around month end flows + what this BOJ action means."

VIX finally made its low at the 50-day Moving Average in an early afternoon slam.

…and TNX revisited the neckline after making new lows. The setup is there for a reversal. Now we need the follow-through.

Regards,

Tony

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