Market Technicals Update: Can We Trust This Stock Rally?

By: Graham_Summers

The stock rally of the last few days has investors wondering if the bottom is in.

Unfortunately, it very likely is not.

High Yield bonds have lead stocks to the upside. They are now leading to the downside, and the High Yield bond market indicates we have further to fall. The stock rally looks out of place here.

If this is not compelling enough consider that the microcap index, the Russell 2000, which leads the S&P 500 indicates stocks have a LONG ways to fall. Hard for stocks to rally against this divergence.

Finally, consider that the S&P 500 has broken its bull market trendline going back to 2009 AND cut through critical support (green line) on a monthly basis. A significant stock rally does not seem to be in the cards.

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Phoenix Capital Research

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Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

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