Is Stock Market SPX Topping?
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jan 22, 2016 - 05:18 PM GMT
SPX jumped in the overnight markets and it appears that Wave (i) of [c] may be complete. Thus far it has retraced 35% of the decline. Should SPX reach 1914.75 (the 38.2% retracement) in only one continuous impulse from [b], I suggest your longs be taken off the table.
Should SPX retrace modestly, then go higher, I suggest that it may reach its 50% Fib level at 1946.50 yet today. That would be the second level at which to take profits, since things may become dicey over the weekend.
It doesn’t hurt to take profits, while losses are harder to swallow.
VIX appears to have only one probe lower to go. Its target may be either the bottom of (a) or mid-Cycle support at 20.97.
The Hi-Lo Index may have reached its peak, or nearly so. A drop beneath this morning’s open at -92.00 may signal the rally is over. Of course, confirmation will come from the mid-Cycle support at -214.61.
TNX has already made a 38.86% retracement. A decline form here may already indicate that selling of equities may be happening and short positions may be taken again.
This exit may not be perfect, but I am erring on the side of caution and showing what I see to support that thesis.
Topping it all off, the SPX daily shows the retracement at its Cycle Bottom at 1904.34. This may be the ultimate resistance.
Regards,
Tony
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