Stock Market Short-Term Bottom?....Fed On Deck.....Wild Wednesday Coming...

By: Jack_Steiman

The market was up last night thanks to actions taken by the Chinese Government to get stock prices higher. We blasted up on the futures, with the S&P 500 not too far from being up 20 points at the top. Things were looking up big time for the market until reality caught up before the market opened for trading. The futures fell and went red, only to come back a bit. Once trading began, we saw a lot of fluctuations before heading lower, with a bit of force. Suddenly, and out of the blue, in a matter of seconds, the S&P 500 futures exploded nearly fifteen points, but then fell right back down again. My guess was that the fed was unhappy about losing 2020, and, thus, tried to get the market flying back up. It didn't work.

However, as the day wore on we saw the market come back nicely, with stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL) printing what appear to be short-term bottoming sticks, or doji's, after going a trend lower. Buyers were catching back up to the sellers. Will it mean much? That's unclear as we are playing with 2020 on the S&P 500, or the breakdown level. The only problem short-term for the bears was the fact that they didn't pounce on the break below 2020 on the close from last Friday. They surely tried, but in the end, not much follow-through at all. That doesn't mean it won't happen tomorrow, But again, there were some interesting bottoming sticks today, so we'll see how that plays out short-term. The bears should have taken this market down well below 2000 today, and kept it there. Some fear on the part of the bears over what may occur on Wednesday. More on that in a moment.

On Wednesday, we get the big report we've all been waiting for. The rate decision by Ms. Yellen. Will she or won't she. How much, and how fast, or not at all. The market's reaction will be more than a little interesting. Most aren't sure what the market will do with whatever she says. Is good news good news? Is good news bad news? Is bad news good news? Is bad news bad news? And what is good or bad news? This one is a real tough one to understand. Some people think that if she does .25 the market will love it. Others will tell you the market will hate it.

I think that if she does .25, and tells the world she's only data dependent and won't just raise for raising sakes, then it'll be received well. The market would hate to hear that she'll keep on raising rates no matter what. I don't think she'd risk that. She may say that if things really improve she'll continue to raise, but that wouldn't be so bad. A strong economy would handle a raising-rate environment. Fed Yellen will raise rates, in my humble opinion, and tell the world she's done raising until the economy shows the necessary strength. I'd be surprised if she does say that and the market falls hard. That said, who knows what she'll say. It'll be very interesting to be sure.

2020 has not been cleared yet with any force back up. The market may be a bit nervous ahead of the F meeting on Wednesday, but we shall see. 2043 is next up, or the 200-day exponential moving average. The long tail at 1993 is now support. A loss of 1993 would be very bearish, for sure, so be aware of that number. We won't know anything for sure until we get Fed Yellen's decision on Wednesday afternoon. The market may just meander around as traders try to set themselves up for how they think things will play out. The market is clearly not safe. Getting aggressive makes zero sense here. The monthly charts are still deathly, and that won't change.

The Fed versus the monthly charts has been quite a battle now for over a year. Upside has been cut off. The market (Sp) is now down nearly 2% for the year. We should know what's next once we get the Fed's decision on Wednesday afternoon, so stay tuned. A very wild Wednesday is ahead of us.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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