SPX ramped above the Broadening Top lower trendline in the final hour of yesterday’s session. The SPX Premarket is up about 5 points as I write, but still beneath its ultimate resistances, the daily mid-Cycle resistance at 2061.97 and the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.38.

Today and tomorrow are both Pivot days. Tomorrow is the stronger one. I had originally surmised that tomorrow would be a low with a ramp into options expiration. The timing of this retracement changes things, with potentially devastating consequences. A decline through options expiration would certainly magnify the volatility during such an event.

Part of the reason for the move higher in stocks is the USD pushed to 99.77 this morning. This final probe was needed to complete the a-b-c pattern before allowing USD to decline back to its Cycle Bottom or lower by the end of the month. This may be a panic phase that implies some event happening on our soil or against our citizens overseas. ZeroHedge reports, “The kneejerk shock from this weekend's Paris terrorism, which briefly pushed S&P futures below 2000, is now a distant memory, and has been replaced with another breathless, violent rally for the second day in a row, which has seen global stocks surge after yesterday's lackluster performance before the S&P500 soared in afternoon trading, and this morning US equity futures launched another push higher the moment Europe opened for trading, just like a day earlier, begging the question just which central bank is pushing this scramble to buy ES futures.”

VIX is beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 18.97, but above mid-Cycle support at 16.36. The retracement appears complete, or nearly so. It remains on a sell signal for SPX.

The NYSE Hi-Lo Index remains on a sell signal.

TNX is also in a retracement that may be nearing completion. When it is complete, it may precede the turn in stocks.

All the best,

Regards,

Tony

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