The SPX Premarket appears flat as I write, while the futures are down 5 points. While I cannot explain why the difference, there is no substantial effect of one over the other at this time.

We will wait for the signals from our other indicators to verify that we have begun the decline.

Although VIX has risen above its Pennant formation, it has not crossed its daily mid-Cycle resistance as yet. A rally above 16.24 may give us a strong assurance that the trend has changed in VIX.

The NYSE Hi-Lo must also decline beneath its mid-Cycle support at -34.08 to verify the change in trend.

The final key is TNX, which has made a new high this morning in this rally.

You can see on the daily chart that it is testing the upper trendline of a declining Broadening Wedge. A breakout above that trendline would be very powerful, but TNX is overbought and is due for a decline. At the same time, USB and UST are due for their respective Master Cycle lows at any time.

Tomorrow is a potential Pivot day (Day 249 in the current Master Cycle). This would be 8.6 days earlier than the average 258 days, but within the “turn window” for a Master Cycle low.

In the meantime, the Euro and Yen are also in the turn window for their Master Cycle lows. The Euro is at day 241, which is 17.2 days earlier than the average Master Cycle low, but may hit its Cycle Bottom support as early as today.

The USD has hit its Cycle Top on Friday and may be making a reversal already this morning. This may be the final piece to the puzzle of what may impel the SPX into a decline. Once begun, the USD may continue its decline through the end of November.

All the best,

Regards,

Tony

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