ONS UK Population Immigration Panic, Forecast 10 Million Increase

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The ONS is belatedly waking up to Britain's population explosion by forecasting a 15% rise in the UK population from 64.6 million (mid 2014) to 74.3 million by 2039 (25 years time), approx 70% of which will be due to continuing out of control immigration from predominantly eastern europe as 7 million more economic migrants will seek to jump on board Britain's benefits gravy train (in work and out of work benefits) that typically can amount to more than X5 those receivable in eastern europe.

ONS Main Points:

• The UK population is projected to increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million in mid-2039.
• The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2027.
• Assumed net migration accounts for 51% of the projected increase over the next 25 years, with natural increase (more births than deaths) accounting for the remaining 49% of growth .
• Over the 10 year period to mid-2024, the UK population is projected to increase by 4.4 million to 69.0 million. This is 249,000 higher than the previous (2012-based) projection for that year.
• The population is projected to continue ageing, with the average (median) age rising from 40.0 years in 2014 to 40.9 years in mid-2024 and 42.9 by mid-2039.
• By mid-2039, more than 1 in 12 of the population is projected to be aged 80 or over.

As expected the bulk of the ONS population forecast increase is for England to absorb 9 million people.

The following table also explains why 70% of the population increase will be due to immigration as it includes 1.7 million as a consequence of 25 years of children born to new immigrants.

Flaw in ONS Population Forecast

The blatent flaw in the ONS population forecast is that they expect net migration of just 5 million over the next 25 years i.e. 200,000 per year when the actual trend of the last decade is pointing towards an exponentially increasing number where instead of an average of 200k per annum, the reality is probably going to be nearer to 1/2 million a year, that would convert into the UK population reaching 74.6 million not in 25 years but in just 15 years time!

As illustrated by recent immigration statistics that showed net migration soaring to 330,000 per annum against David Cameron's long standing election promise of net migration of in the 'tens of thousands'.

UK Population Growth Forecast

My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated below:

UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030)

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

The updated UK population graph shows an actual trend trajectory as per the most recent ONS population data into Mid 2014 of 64.6 million, which suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 4 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration and high birth rate that in total would translate into a population increase equivalent to 15 cities the size of Birmingham.

This has huge implications for Britain in terms of housing, services, wages, education, welfare and social cohesion that will make the crisis of the past decade look like a picnic. For in depth analysis see 15 Apr 2015 - UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015, and the following video -

The bottom line is that out of control immigration ensures that the likes of the UK house prices bull market looks set to continue for at least another decade!

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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