Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

S&P 500 Stock Market Index Approaching Critical Test of March Low

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Jun 26, 2008 - 06:47 PM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe relentless selling pressure that has transpired since about 3 PM ET yesterday (Wednesday) despite some intense oversold readings and developing momentum divergences has started to convince me that the near-term chart work in the S&P 500, though still extremely important, may not be calling the directional shots any longer. In fact, the developing negativity of the very long term technical work may be the timeframe that IS CALLING -- and will continue to call -- the directional shots for the foreseeable future.


I really don't know with 100% certainty if that IS the case right here, right now. But it remains a growing, and dominant factor in my analysis, and something that will govern my perceptions going forward, especially if the SPX violates and sustains beneath 1257 (just 2.5% away).

With the end of June and the end of Q2 just two sessions away (Monday close), the enclosed monthly chart of the S&P 500 is approaching a critical juncture as it nears a test of its March low at 1257.00Å which must contain forthcoming weakness in order to avert further price deterioration, possibly acute price deterioration, that presses the index initially to test 1174 (the 50% support area of the entire climb from 2002 to 2007).

However, I must tell you that the magnitude of the massive "M" or double-top formation since 2000 is so enormous and has such powerfully negative implications that we cannot ignore them. A sustained break of 1174 will point the SPX towards a full-fledged retest of the bottom of the "M" at 769.00.

Moving over to the Qs, the QQQQ are approaching a very significant support zone between 45.70 and 45.50, which represents the 50% correction of the entire March-June advance AND the downside measured swing target off of the June high. The ability of the Q's to sustain at or above 45.70/50 will be a VERY important technical "event" that signals to us that the March-June "bull phase" remains intact and is still the dominant near-term trend direction.

However, a plunge that sustains below 45.50 will cast a much more bearish hue over the prior advance and will argue that the March-June period was a completed recovery rally within a larger bear trend off of the October 2007 high above 55.00.

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

© 2002-2007 MPTrader.com, an AdviceTrade publication.  All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in