Why Historic Iran Nuclear Deal with Will be a Historic Failure
Politics / Nuclear Weapons Jul 15, 2015 - 12:51 PM GMT
For years the United States has tried to reach a nuclear deal with Iran. Never before in the history of the US, has a Secretary of State been so involved in a task or invested so much time and energy on a single mission. John Kerry has spent so much time with the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, that finishing the deal probably felt like signing a divorce from your closest partner.
The deal is signed, now what?
For the hardliners in Teheran, this deal means nothing. The US is still the Great Satan and Iran has to do whatever it takes to protect itself from the evil world around.
We have no idea if Iran is developing nuclear weapons or not. But we do know that Iran, as any other country, has military secrets. The US, the UK, France or China wouldn´t let anybody else look into their top secret military areas. And yet, this is precisely what the powers of the West demand from Iran. Good luck with that.
This deal is based on an impossible balance. To make sure that Iran doesn´t produce nukes, inspectors must have free access to all the places deemed necessary. But some of those places will necessarily be off limits to protect Iran´s military secrets. Denying access to these places doesn´t mean that Iran is producing nukes. It just means that those places hide military secrets. But the US will interpret any refusal as proof that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, even if that is not the case. This is a classic deadlock:
Iran: We are not producing nuclear weapons.
US: Then open this door.
Iran: We can´t, there are secrets inside.
US: Aha! I knew it! You are producing nukes!
Iran: We are not producing nuclear weapons.
US: Then open this door.
Iran: We can´t there are secrets inside.
US: Aha! I knew it! You are producing nukes!
This can go on forever. But there is one thing that will not go on forever: this deal.
The United States has a very bad track record in terms of legality, when it comes to the actions of its intelligence services. Given the opportunity to have access to Iranian military facilities, the temptation to go beyond nuclear issues will be too hard to resist. The US will try to use this deal to get all kinds of information from Iran, nuclear related or not. And the Iranians know that.
So, going back to beginning: For the hardliners in Teheran, this deal means nothing. The US is still the Great Satan and Iran has to do whatever it takes to protect itself from the evil world around.
We guess that John Kerry will soon have the opportunity to be with his long time friend Javad Zarif again. That´s the Atlantic Perspective.
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