Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

UK Retail Sales High Street Boom- The Truth Behind the Headlines

Economics / UK Economy Jun 19, 2008 - 06:27 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the midst of the worst economic conditions in nearly 20 years, May saw retail sales soar by a surprising annualised rate of 8.1%, the highest rate in 20 years, up 3.4% for the month. The surge is more akin to that expected during boom times rather than the bust that the UK is fast heading towards. The mainstream media immediately seized on the headline rate to announce Britain is experiencing a mini high street spending boom. However looking behind the headline figures tells a different story.



  Retail sales Index Month on Month change
2008 01
139.4
+2.1
2008 02
140.7
+1.3
2008 03
140.3
-0.4
2008 04
139.9
-0.4
2008 05
144.7
+4.8

 

What is apparent from the retail sales figures is that the preceding 2 months experienced a contraction in sales volume, the actual average rate for the last 3 months is just 1.3, which equates to % change of just 0.9% on the month, therefore the monthly change can be put down to the under reporting of the true rate of retail sales for the months of March and April 2008, and thus resulting in the sharp jump for May 2008.

But that still does not explain the annualised rate of 8.1%, for that we need to take a look at the retail sales figures for 2007.

  Retail sales Index Month on Month change
2007 01
130.9
-2.5
2007 02
133.2
2.3
2007 03
134.4
1.2
2007 04
134.7
0.3
2007 05
133.8
-0.9
2007 06
135.1
1.3

 

Retail sales growth for April and May 2007 was extraordinarily low, and infact fell in May 2007, therefore when the current index is compared against May 2007 the resulting increase is a sharp and unrealistic 8.1%. To obtain an more accurate figure that irons out monthly inaccuracies the best strategy is to compare against an average of the 3 month retail sales figures i.e. March, April, May 2008, against March, April, May 2007. This results in a current retail sales index of 141.3 compared to 134.3 for the same period in 2007, resulting in an annualised rate of 5.5%. The next step is to subtract Retail Prices Index for the impact of inflation of 4.3% from the 5.5% rate which results in a real terms increase of retail sales of just 1.2% on an annualised basis.

Real retail sales on an inflation adjusted basis have been depressed for approaching 3 years which is reflected in the poor performance of retail stocks that have under performed the stock market as a whole. Far from the highest growth in retail sales since records began, the actual real retail sales index shows retailers just about managing to keep their heads above water.

Therefore a valuable lesson is not to take and run with the monthly headline figures as much of the mainstream media right from the BBC downwards mistakenly appears to have done so with May's retail sales figures.

The current real rate of 1.2% is still expansionary and implies that a UK recession is not imminent and thus in line with the Market Oracle forecast for UK GDP growth of 1.3% for 2008.The key to watch for in the coming months will be if real retail sales go negative on an annualised basis from the current rate of 1.2%, which will be a sign of major distress amongst high street retailers and reflected in share price performance regardless of the totally unrepresentative headline rate.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article if published in its entirety, including attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules