TNX is back in the news this morning with a huge spike in yields. The monthly Jobs Report came out much better than expected. Never mind that the vast bulk of those jobs was fictitious, AKA the CES Birth/Death Model. This gives the Fed the green light to hike rates, er…to follow what the market is already doing with the rates. This is an awfully tight corner for the Fed to be in.

The best fit for this event is an extended Wave (4), much like the Broadening Top in equities. However, it may not last, since today is day 260 in the current Master Cycle in Treasury bonds, suggesting that we may have seen a spike bottom in bonds and a false breakout in yields today. Once TNX declines through the bottom trendline, we should see a decline to the daily Cycle Bottom, at a minimum. Other analysis show the TNX going as low as single digits.

In thePremarket, SPX has declined to its trendline and bounced again, suggesting a possible Sub-minute Wave (b( in progress with a Wave © spike at the open. Today being Friday, there may be an attempt to regain some or all of this week’s losses in SPX. Stay alert.

Regards,

Tony

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