If this analysis is correct, SPX should have a target near 2130.00. Note that the trading bands are contracting. This suggests a very large move is imminent. The move to higher ground may seem impressive, especially with the media trumpeting another new high, but it will be a fake-out.

This rally is very long in the tooth and may collapse in a panic sell-off right from the top.

A loss of support at the mid-Cycle (2102.79) gives us our first indication that all might not be well in the SPX.

VIX is challenging its Intermediate-term resistance at 13.76, but an aggressive sell signal comes after crossing the 50-day Moving Average at 14.14, with confirmation of the sell signal above its most recent high at 15.29.

The Hi-Lo index is already on an aggressive sell, with confirmation once it declines beneath 6.00.

TNX has made its breakout above the upper trendline of its Descending Broadening Wedge. This suggests that 10-year yields may go at least to the Cycle Top resistance at 26.14, and possibly higher. Once above 22.59, it will be generally recognized as a breakout and then the panic begins.

Regards,

Tony

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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only. There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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