Still No Stock Market Breakout...Another Failure....AAPL Huge

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Apr 28, 2015 - 08:42 AM GMT

I am writing this report before the Apple Inc. (APPL) earnings report this evening. The market gapped up today and broke out above 2119, yet, again, this time reaching near 2126. It looked like the day was finally upon us, only to see those bears come in yet again to take the market below 2119 on a closing basis. Another good try by the bulls, but short-term very overbought conditions put the bulls back to sleep for now. They were excited. Folks were certain that the market had finally made the move, but it failed again. The failure doesn't have to be big picture. It can rock back up tomorrow on a solid AAPL report, or even if it's not and we fall some, the market can try again after things calm down for a bit.

It's very easy to say the market is doomed if we keep failing, but that's not necessarily the case. Maybe words from the fed can get that job done on Wednesday. All I'm saying is do not jump to conclusions based on today's action. All of that said, after a while, you need to stop failing. If you have too many of them, after a while the bulls will surrender and allow things to push lower only to eventually try again when things get unwound far enough. Don't get too emotional with today's failure and always keep things in perspective. Be on guard due to the number of failures that have taken place but never count the bulls out. They are relentless most of the time, and fight back when you least expect it. Today was definitely more bearish. Let's see if AAPL can turn that around for tomorrow.

It's unfortunate to look at the market and say how important one stock is to the overall health of the stock market. AAPL is now in the Dow, Nasdaq, and everything else it seems. It is a very heavily weighted stock. It could be one of those situations where a market goes higher but does so on more stocks going lower which isn't healthy. AAPL can carry the market a long way on its shoulders. That doesn't mean the market is acting in a healthy way. It can camouflage a lot of ills. If we do break out on price it will be essential we do so on strong breadth. We need to see the majority of stocks moving higher. If we break out on a low number of stocks doing well then it is likely that the breakout will fail quickly. Never a guarantee of that but the odds are against the market if fewer and fewer stocks are rising in concert. This makes the report tonight extremely important from many different perspective. We'll know a lot more about the health of the market tomorrow.

There's nothing more to add other than the market will also have another significant event to deal with on Wednesday after Fed Yellen speaks her magical words of wisdom to the stock market world. She will try to keep the market happy is my belief, and that means to let it know that there won't be any rate hikes in the near-term. She would rather see rising prices, although she should recognize that the market can afford some type of correction from here. That said, I still believe she'll let us all know that rates will be staying near zero for a while to come, if not longer than that. I do believe some of what she says will be contingent upon what happens after AAPL reports their earnings this evening. If the market is falling hard she will be sure to keep things peaceful, meaning bullish talk for the market. If AAPL is rocking the markets higher maybe she'll get a bit more daring, but who knows for sure. Anyway, AAPL this evening and then the fed Wednesday. It won't be a dull week.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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