The SPX Premarket is up 11.00 points as I write, suggesting a 50% retracement may be in the works. However, SPX may also retest the lower trendline of its Broadening Wedge, which happens to be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. That suggests a pop at the open. However, there are 5 waves (impulsive) in this decline, so the retracement should be short-lived.

USD/JPY is also in a brief retracement mode, so there is some support for it in the carry trade, temporary as it may be...

TNX appears to be testing its Wave 2 lows, but maintaining above them. If this scenario is correct, we should see rising rates back above its trendline at mid-Cycle resistance. A breakout there would bring universal attention to the specter of rising rates.

Regards,

Tony

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