Opinion Polls Forecast Labour SNP LibDem Extreme Hung Parliament Government - Election 2015
ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 08, 2015 - 03:15 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Six days on from the 7 leaders debate and the opinion polls have settled to suggest the worst possible outcome, one of an extreme hung parliament where it is not just that any single party will be unable to form the next government but that neither party will be able to form a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats which means the only workable solution would be a Labour SNP Alliance, that could possibly also include the Liberal Democrats or perhaps Plaid Cymru's 3-6 MP's could be enough to bridge the gap to the 326 seat majority magic number.
In my opinion a Labour / Nationalists government would be a disastrous outcome for Britain as the SNP would see this as means to an end of literally bankrupting the UK over the next few years through out of control public spending and borrowing to perhaps at least double the current £9 billion annual subsidy from England to Scotland as well as lumbering rump UK with at least £130billion of Scottish debt before Holyrood finally declare Scotland Independant that I have warned the consequences for over a year that would literally sow the seeds for the Balkanisation of Britain (04 Sep 2014 - Scottish Independence Opens Pandora's Box of Disintegration, Balkanisation of Britain)
Whilst in Wales they have their own potential for an bankruptcy inducing insurgency with a potential of 6 MP's as the Plaid Cymru leader made clear when demanding from Ed Miliband - "We deserve an additional £1.2 billion in Wales to take is up to parity with Scotland, if you get into government will you give £1.2 billion to Wales?"
Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts
The opinion polls seats forecasts average at 275 seats for Conservatives and 273 for Labour. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a truly messy and disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.
Conservatives + Lib Dems = 301 : FAIL
Add DUP 8 seats = 309 : FAIL
Whilst Labour + Lib Dems = 299 : FAIL
Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP and probably the Lib Dems i.e. Labour + SNP + Lib Dem =349 : SUCCESS
The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.
Keeps flip flopping from day to day between Labour or Conservatives in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.
Are exhibiting a consistent strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time where by election day both parties may reach parity much inline with other forecasters.
Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.
After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.
Seat Forecasts Trend Analysis
Overall the opinion pollsters are trending in favour of the Conservative party which if the trend continues implies that Conservatives will be the largest party which is inline with my forecast expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.
Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 50-55, against my expectations of just 35.
Conclusion
In my judgement the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win by a wide margin, who could even win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.
16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?
The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.
The the key implications of the above graph are -
- The window for an outright labour election victory has ended as of July 2013.
- As of writing an election today would result in a Coalition government with a majority of about 40 seats.
- The window of opportunity for a Coalition government ends by mid 2014 after which there is an increasing probability for a Conservative outright majority.
- A May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of about 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from the beginning of 2014.
The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are trending towards an outright election victory which NO ONE is currently advocating, so it would come is a big shock to pollsters on election day.
UK General Election Forecast 2015
In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others
UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:
Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.
The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.
Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.
The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.
Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:
The bottom line is that the opinion polls are effectively forecasting the most disastrous outcome of a Labour SNP government when instead the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the Conservative Lib-Dem Coalition.
Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50176.html
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
