Leaders Debate Election 2015 - On Immigration Nick Clegg Reminds Nigel Farage of his Foreign Roots and Wife

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Nigel Farage leader of UKIP, who's primary objective is to control immigration puts current levels of out of control net migration of 300,000 per year into historical perspective of the post war trend of just 30,000 per year. Therefore net immigration is currently ten times that of what Britain has been used to and saw as sustainable. However Nick Clegg reminds Nigel of his foreign roots and that he is married to a foreigner.

"In the 1990's net migration was about 40,000 per year"

"Since World War 2 we have operated with net migration of about 30,000 per year. It is now 300,000 people per year, it is ten times anything this country has had to live with since 1945...."

Nick Clegg responds - "The Farage family were foreigners once, I'm married to a foreigner and so are you."

Opinion Polls

The immediate reaction from opinion pollsters was to give the debate win to UKIP Nigel Farage and SNP Nicola Sturgeon.

YouGov

Sturgeon 28%
Farage 20%
Cameron 18%
Miliband 15%
Clegg 10%
Bennett 5%
Wood: 4%

However, as the previous leaders debate illustrates that a more reliable reading follows several days after the debate. Therefore we will have a clearer voter reaction come Monday evening.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

• 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
• 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The bottom line is that this election offers voters a choice of between a continuation of the steady as she goes Conservative Lib-Dem Coalition or to take a chance on a Labour SNP Axis that then goes on a debt fuelled spending spree for a couple of years or so before collapsing Britain into an early election some 2-3 years from now as the SNP insurgency will have achieved their tunnel vision mission of ejecting themselves out of the UK and into economic abyss.

Source and Comments:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50115.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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