A very small 12-point Minute Wave [v] ending at 2102.13 may have been all there is to this rally. Since then the Diagonal trendline has been broken and SPX remains beneath it. There seems to be only one alternate pattern…another Broadening Top formation, if it chooses to rally above the Diagonal trendline.

Today is a Trading Cycle Pivot day, while tomorrow is a Primary Cycle turn day. A decline beneath 2085.44 may confirm the decline has begun. A ramp to a marginal new high postpones the turn until Monday.

VIX isn’t helping to confirm a change of trend yet. It is still beneath its Triangle trendline and Short-term resistance, both at 16.71. The pattern suggests a double zigzag Wave [e] by the end of today.

It needs a breakout above 16.74 to suggest a change of trend is at hand. A confirmed sell signal comes at the 50-day Moving Average at 17.98.

TNX hasn’t broken down yet and may also make a new high by the end of the day or early Monday in a quick Wave c. The corrective Wave 2 is nearing its time limit. Generally three weeks from the Cycle Bottom at 16.51 is sufficient for the consolidation to occur.

I may not be able to comment further until Monday or Tuesday.

Regards,

Tony

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