Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold and Mining Stocks Refuse to Decline Despite Soaring US Dollar

Stock-Markets / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015 Jan 05, 2015 - 06:15 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Stock-Markets

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The USD Index soared much higher on Friday, well above the previous high. With the USD Index being so high, it seems odd that gold managed to close higher and the same went for mining stocks, which even outperformed the yellow metal. Is the rally in gold around the corner?


Actually, it could be the case. We have been aiming to profit on the next decline in the precious metals market after a confirmation of the market’s weakness, most likely after a correction and continuation of a rally in the USD Index. However, the USD Index is already very high – well above the 90 level and relatively close to the resistance at 92.33. Since gold is not declining, it could be waiting for a bigger sign of weakness in the USD Index in order to start at least a short-term rally. This means that we might see an opportunity to go long very soon.

Let’s see why, starting with the USD Index chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

The USD Index moved much higher and is now approaching its medium-term rising resistance line. The cyclical turning point is also just around the corner, which means that we will likely see a turnaround shortly.

The resistance is just above the 92 level and the above chart is not the only one that tells us that this is the case.

The 2005 high (92.33) is the next major horizontal resistance and this level is more or less where the rising green resistance line is. There are two very important reasons for which we could see a corrective downswing or a decline after the USD Index reaches this level.

Naturally, the USD Index could rally even higher, to the 96.11 level, but even if this is going to be the case, a corrective downswing after a move to 92.33 (or close to this level) is likely.

All in all, a short-term decline seems to be likely for the USD Index, but not necessarily right away. The USD Index will probably need to first rally once again by approximately as much as it rallied last week.

Our previous comments for the long-term gold chart remain up-to-date:

The events of the last three weeks didn’t change much as gold ended the previous week below $1,200 and – more importantly - well below the declining resistance line. The medium-term trend remains down.

Please note that the long-term turning point will come into play in a few months – it may be the case that this is when the final bottom will form.

However, another visible thing is that gold didn’t move below the previous lows while the USD Index was rallying. It seems likely that gold needs to move higher once again before it’s ready to move much lower.

As far as the short term is concerned, we see that the head-and-shoulders was completed but immediately invalidated and at this time there are no bearish implications. The target based on this formation is at about $106 for the GLD ETF, which corresponds to about $1,100 in spot gold. This target will become very probable only once we see a confirmed breakdown below the neck level of the head-and-shoulders pattern.

For now, we can say that gold has been showing strength lately by refusing to decline in spite of the U.S. dollar’s rally.

The situation in the GDX ETF is rather tense because of 2 things. The first thing is the fact that the 50-moving average was broken only insignificantly. As we wrote previously, that’s the average that has been stopping local rallies since late November. We now see a 5th attempt to move above it. The implications are bearish.

The other important thing is that mining stocks moved higher by over 3% on Friday, which is significant as gold rallied only a little and the USD rallied strongly. This is bullish. The only reason that it’s not very bullish is that the volume that accompanied Friday’s rally was relatively low – it was not a huge-volume rally that would confirm the strength of the move.

Since all the recent attempts failed and history tends to repeat itself, we are quite likely to see another local top relatively soon.

Please note that even if miners rallied from here – say to the $20 level or so – it would not really change the bearish outlook for the medium term.

Summing up, if gold and mining stocks continue to show strength relative to the USD Index and the latter moves to the 92.33 level or very close to it, we will strongly consider (after examining other factors) opening speculative long positions in the precious metals sector. We are not at this point just yet. If, however, we see a confirmed breakdown below the head and shoulders formation in the GLD ETF, we will probably open a short position in the precious metals sector. Either way, we will be monitoring the market for additional signs and confirmations and report to you – our subscribers - accordingly.

To summarize:

Trading capital (our opinion): No positions

Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions

Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position

You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As always, we'll keep our subscribers updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send them our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional ones whenever appropriate. If you'd like to receive them, please subscribe today.

Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com
Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment - SunshineProfits.DE

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules