Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Happy New Year

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jan 03, 2015 - 03:38 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2089. After hitting an all time high at SPX 2094 by noon Monday, the market traded lower for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.35%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.80%, and the DJ World index dropped 1.30%. Economics reports for the holiday week were sparse, and biased to the downside. On the downtick: construction spending, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing and the WLEI. On the uptick: consumer confidence and the monetary base. Next week’s report will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes and the Payrolls report.


LONG TERM: bull market

As we enter 2015 we are maintaining the same long term count as we have for past few years: a five primary wave Cycle wave [1] bull market underway. While this bull market has lasted longer than nearly everyone expected. It has maintained a reasonable OEW pattern, even through this very extended Primary wave. To recap: Primary waves I and II completed in 2011 and a quite complex Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1 and simple Major waves 3 and 5. Primary wave III appears to be doing just the opposite with its five Major waves. Major wave 1 was simple, and Major wave 3 has thus far subdivided quite a bit. In fact, we are counting the recent activity from the October 2014 Intermediate wave iv low as Int. v of Major wave 3. And it appears to be subdividing into five Minor waves.

Should the count be correct, we would expect the current uptrend to reach around SPX 2214. Then after a correction of about 5%, the market should then make new highs to complete Major wave 3. Then after a correction of about 10% for Major wave 4, Major wave 5 should take the market even higher. It would appear this bull market still has plenty of uptrends, and time, before it concludes.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After completing Intermediate wave iv in October at SPX 1821, the market rallied to SPX 2079 by early December. Then after a 5% correction into mid-December to SPX 1973, the market rallied to new highs just before year’s end. We have labeled the SPX 2079 high as Minor wave 1, and the 1973 low as Minor 2 of Intermediate wave v. The current uptrend from that low thus far is only part of Minor wave 3.

When one reviews the RSI on the daily chart they will note that uptrends get, and stay, quite overbought for quite some time before they top out. This one just barely hit overbought before declining to below neutral this week. It still appears to have plenty of upside left based on this indicator alone. Medium term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the Minor wave 2 SPX 1973 low we have counted four waves up to Friday’s SPX 2046 low: 2012-1992-2094-2046 thus far. Our preference remains to count these four waves as Micro waves 1-2-3-4 of Minute wave one of Minor 3. However, the recent pullback of 48 points (2094-2046) was a lot larger than expected, and larger than that wave 2 pullback of 20 points (2012-1992). With this in mind, it is possible that Minute wave one ended at SPX 2094 and the recent pullback is Minute wave two.

Nevertheless, we are maintaining the Micro 1-2-3-4 count because of the Fibonacci relationships that have unfolded. Micro wave 1 (1973-2012) rose 39 points, Micro 2 retraced 50% of that advance to SPX 1992. Micro wave 3 rose 102 points, or an exact 2.618 relationship to Micro 1. Thus far, Micro wave 4 has retraced nearly 50% (2043) of that advance at Friday’s 2046 low. Should the market continue its pullback early next week, dropping below SPX 2040, then we would consider this pullback Minute wave two. Should the market rally beyond the OEW 2070 pivot, then we would consider Micro wave 5 underway. So the parameters for next week are below SPX 2040, and above SPX 2070. The first suggests a test of the 2019 pivot range, the second new highs are next. Short term support is at SPX 2058 and SPX 2046, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 0.8%.

The European markets were all lower on the week losing 1.2%.

The Commodity equity group was mixed and lost 2.3%.

The DJ World index lost 1.3% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 1.0% on the week.

Crude is still in a downtrend and lost 4.4% on the week.

Gold remains in an uptrend but lost 0.8% on the week.

The USD is still in an uptrend and gained 1.2% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Auto sales. Tuesday: Factory orders and ISM services. Wednesday: the ADP, Trade deficit and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday: Payrolls (est. +245K) and Wholesale inventories. Best to your weekend, week, and new year!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules