Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Crude Oil, US National Debt, and Silver

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Dec 23, 2014 - 05:52 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

Examine the following chart of monthly crude oil prices. In the past 26 years crude oil prices have crashed 65%, 59%, 54%, and 76%. The current crash is about 51% so far.


Crude Oil - Monthly Prices

Examine the following chart of monthly silver prices. You can see similar crashes of 64%, 46%, 51%, and 68% since 1986. Prices rallied after these crashes and went considerably higher. Sometimes it took years, but like the national debt, silver prices have substantially increased since 1913.

Silver - Monthly Prices

Examine the US national debt, which is currently over $18 Trillion = $18,000,000,000,000. Unfunded liabilities, which might be ten times larger, are not even considered in the following graphs. Adjust the national debt for population increases so we see only the per capita national debt. As expected, it is climbing exponentially higher, and accelerating since 9-11.

Following the increase in national debt is an increase in the currency in circulation and the prices for most commodities and consumer goods. Examine the graphs for population adjusted national debt, crude oil, silver, and the S&P 500 Index, all of which show annual averages of weekly prices. Note that all prices have been indexed to 1971 = 1.0 for comparison purposes.

Population Adjusted Nat. Debt and Crude Oil

Note that the recent crash in crude oil prices is not yet reflected in the annual average of weekly prices.

Population Adjusted Nat. Debt and Silver

Population Adjusted Nat. Debt and the S&P

Conclusion:

Crude oil and silver prices have crashed before, and they will again. But the one constant in our financial universe that seems inevitable, for the foreseeable future, is increasing debt. Crude oil and silver prices will follow increasing debt.

Expect the S&P to correct downwards (eventually), expect silver and crude to resume their upward trajectory (eventually, probably soon), and, like the inevitability of death and taxes, expect debt to inevitably accelerate higher.

WHEN the corrections will occur seems more and more under the control of the High Frequency Traders, the politicians, and the banking cartel. Sadly our global economic problems, which have been exacerbated by the crude oil crash, will not cured with more debt, which seems to be the preferred “solution.”

Gold and silver are real money, and they are insurance against the craziness and volatility of debt based fiat currency that is increasingly vulnerable to currency crashes like we have seen in Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Russia and elsewhere.

A currency crash can also occur in Japan, Europe, and the United States. Those dollars, euros, and yen have counter-party risk while gold and silver do not.

GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2014 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in