Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Brazilian Bovespa Stock Market Technical Analysis

Stock-Markets / Brazil Nov 27, 2014 - 06:02 PM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Stock-Markets

The Bovespa is the Brazilian stock index and is based out of Sao Paulo. Let’s take a top down approach to the technicals beginning with the yearly chart.


BOVESPA YEARLY CHART



We can see price made an all time high at 73920 in 2008 and has not traded above there since although it went close in 2010. Since then price has been retreating.

The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is still in positive territory but seemingly trending down. This actually looks pretty good considering price has not hit new yearly highs in a round six years.

The Stochastic indicator still has a bearish bias so there looks to be further downside in store.

As for where the final pullback low might be, I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from the 1998 low to 2008 high. A move back to the 61.8% level at 31066 would mean the 2008 low holds. This can be seen in the green highlighted circle. However, I suspect that low will give way as price makes its way towards the 76.4% level at 20941 which can be seen in the yellow highlighted circle.

Let’s move on to the monthly chart.

BOVESPA MONTHLY CHART



I have added some different Fibonacci retracement levels using the range from the 2002 low to 2008 high. My preference is for the 2008 low to be taken out as price pulls back to the 76.4% level at 23536. This sets up the potential for a false break low as this is not far below the 2008 low. I prefer this Fibonacci setup to that outlined in the yearly analysis. Let’s see.

I suspect an ABC corrective move is in play from the 2008 high. Wave A and B are already in place with wave C now in progress. Once the wave C low is in place I will be looking for a new uptrend to commence that takes price to all time highs. All in good time.

I have added the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (PSAR) indicator which pertains to the dots and we can see price busted these dots to the downside a couple of months ago. So there is now a bearish bias in force but as often happens after an initial bust of PSAR resistance, price then trades back up to test the dots which are now on the upside. This PSAR resistance is now at 61634 and I doubt price will trade above there. Why?

I have added Bollinger Bands which show the recent high in September trading well above the upper band. Highs are often made when price trades well above the upper band and I expect this time to be no different.

Also, there is a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows since the wave B high in 2010. Apart from the recent high, the previous swing high was in September 2012 at 63428 and is denoted by the horizontal line. Breaking this level is the first step needed to get the bullish case back on track.

The recent high was accompanied by an overbought RSI reading while the Stochastic indicator is showing a recent bearish crossover.

Let’s finish off the analysis by looking at the weekly chart.

BOVESPA WEEKLY CHART



Price has been trending up since the middle of the year and it looks like this trading has been part of an ABC corrective pattern. This looks to be complete with the wave C high in September at 62305.

The PSAR indicator shows price recently busting the dots to the upside so more upside looks likely.

The Bollinger Bands show price moving away from the lower band and now milling around the middle band. Perhaps price tests the recent high and finds resistance at the upper band.

And if price turns back down after failing to break to new highs then new lows should be seen.

The Stochastic indicator still has a bullish bias while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is showing a recent bullish crossover so the weeks ahead look positive for price.

The Brazilian stock carnival has been quite subdued in recent times and I’m not expecting the samba to heat up any time soon. But the sun will shine again. Fique tranquilo!

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2014 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in