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Iceland Facing Meltdown as the Credit Crunch Sinks its Currency

Economics / Credit Crisis 2008 May 22, 2008 - 09:14 AM GMT

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite rising fast financially in the past few years, Iceland is feeling the chilly effects of the global credit crunch - so much so the fiercely independent island nation is considering European Union membership to save its tanking currency. A special report, jointly developed by U.K. affiliate MoneyWeek Magazine and our experts here at Money Morning, explores the pros and cons of Iceland's potential EU membership. For more information on MoneyWeek, please click here .


If you think the credit crunch is hitting the United States and United Kingdom hard, spare a thought for Iceland.

Banks all over the world have spent much of the past few years devouring cheap money, but Iceland's taken the whole thing to quite an extreme. Its big players - Landsbanki Islands HF and Kaupthing Bank - have been on an extraordinary borrowing spree, sucking in vast quantities of cash to fund lending and acquisitions across Europe and the United Kingdom.

The result? This tiny country - home to a mere 300,000 people - has somehow created a financial system nine times the size of its gross domestic product (GDP).

And a nasty hangover.

Now, the cheap credit that fueled the binge has all but disappeared, and the banks - as well as the economy - are in trouble. The stock market has tanked, inflation has soared, and the Icelandic krona has fallen 26% against the euro this year. House prices, which had doubled since 2001, are now falling.

According to the Icelandic Central Bank, the economy will contract by 2.5% next year and 1.5% in 2010.

"We are still likely to see a fairly sharp slowdown in the Icelandic economy in the coming quarters and the most likely scenario is for negative GDP growth in Iceland in 2008 and 2009," says Lars Christensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S .

Lucky then that the Alka Seltzer is on its way.

On Friday, the Nordic central banks extended an emergency loan facility worth
$2.36 billion (€1.5 billion) to their island neighbor designed to shore up the krona, give the Iceland Central Bank some credibility as the lender of the last resort to the banks (which have been under huge speculative pressure from many of the world's big hedge funds), and jump start the economy.

"In times of uncertainty and turmoil, the central banks have a responsibility to cooperate to attain their overall objectives," said Swedish Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves. "The swap agreement is aimed at supporting (Iceland) in its task of safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability."

Much Dreaded EU Membership

Iceland's financial rut has raised a pretty uncomfortable question for Icelanders: Can they really go it alone in the global market place or should they begin to think the unthinkable and join the European Union?

With fishing accounting for over 40% of exports, Iceland has long had reason to very firmly oppose membership in the EU.  Just ask any fisherman up and down the west coast of Ireland what he thinks of the EU, and the opening of Irish waters to big Spanish tankers. Magnify his fury by 10, and you'll get a good idea of what Icelanders, a traditionally independent lot, think of the EU.

But with the economy destabilizing and the currency all over the place, support for the idea is growing. A poll published in April by the Icelandic daily Fréttabladid showed that 68% of Icelanders would be willing to open membership negotiations with the EU, up from 55% in February. EU membership would mean that the Icelandic central banks would lose the power to set interest rates. But that may well be a perfectly fair price to pay for a more stable currency.

" What we need in the long run is economic stability , which I doubt we can guarantee in the long run with our current currency," Foreign Minister Ingibjörg Sólrún Gísladóttir told the Wall Street Journal .

Gísladóttir also leads the Social Democratic Alliance party, the only major party that supports membership in the European Union.

The majority of durable goods, for example cars and washing machines, are imported into Iceland. So given that the currency has been taking a beating, Icelanders are now paying much more for the goods they import.

Inflation rose to an annualized rate of 11.8% in April, the highest level since September 1990. And over the past three months, consumer prices are up 6.4%. That's equivalent to an annual inflation rate of 28%.

Using the Euro would mean offering up a decent chunk of sovereignty at the EU's altar. But then, given that interest rates in Iceland are running at 15.5% and 4% in the Eurozone, membership might also offer suffering Icelanders what they really need right now.

How Long Can Iceland Hold Out?

If any struggling small-sized economy can hold out against the financial storm, it's Iceland.

The country is extremely energy efficient. The piping hot water that comes out of the spigot comes directly from the country's wealth of hot springs. 

Its population enjoys nearly free hydroelectric power by harnessing the flow of its natural and manmade waterfalls.

Geothermal power, created by steam under the earth's surface, is so cheap that Reykjavik actually has some heated sidewalks in the wintertime.

And since the country is relatively small - both in size and population - the need for oil for cars isn't nearly as big as other similarly sized European nations. 

The International Monetary Fund ranks the icy island the fourth most affluent country in the world , Vanity Fair reported in its May issue.

But with its banks losing money fast, that status is in jeopardy. Public sentiment is leaning toward falling into the arms of the EU, should the need arise.

Given how much is at stake, the issue will be treated cautiously.

"This is a long-term issue for the politicians to decide," Arnór Sighvatsson, the Central Bank of Iceland's chief economist, told the Wall Street Journal .

News and Related Story Links:

By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

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Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Keith Fitz-Gerald Archive

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Comments

username
23 May 08, 17:55
Banking and Credit Is A Shell Game

The Problem -

This is an attempt to state it simply, because if you understand the problem, then you're going to see the solution clearly as well. If it doesn't make sense the first time you read it, try reading it again. Eventually, the whole picture will sink in...

A quick history of money

1) Once, gold and silver were considered the only ''real'' money, but it was heavy and risky to carry around...

2) So people paid goldsmiths to store the money, and got paper receipts for it...

3) After a while, people used the receipts like money, and left the gold in the bank most of the time. So the bankers got clever and came up with a scam...

4) The banks printed off receipts for more gold than they actually had, and ''loaned'' those receipts out to charge interest on it. As long as everyone didn't redeem their receipts gold at the same time, this let them make a lot of money charging interest, because they could charge interest on MONEY THEY DIDN'T HAVE.

An analogy can be made using property and titles. Here's the scam in another way:

Step 1: Acquire a vacation home,

Step 2: Sell the title to the home to one person,

Step 3: Sell the title to the home to a DIFFERENT person,

Step 4: Hope they both don't show up on the same weekend!

Fractional reserve banking lets a bank say to a depositor that all his money is safe and sound at the bank, while at the same time they get to loan most of it out to someone else to charge interest on it. So there are two people with a legitimate claim to the same pile of money. So whose is it, really? And where is it?

It gets stranger: When you receive your loan, if you deposit it into a bank, this bank can loan your loan money out again. This process can be repeated indefinitely, and if you do the math you find that much more money is on deposit in all the banks than existed in the first place. This begs the question... where did all this extra money come from? It had to come from somewhere, right? This would be true if all money were physical objects, but today money is a concept, an idea, a number. The answer is... it is created by the bank!

What does this mean?

1) Loaning money while claiming it is still on deposit increases the money supply, essentially creating more money (otherwise deposits would vanish). In essence, for the bank to have your cake and loan it too, it must create more cake. This increase in money supply is the cause of inflation.

2) Almost every dollar that exists is owed to a bank somewhere, because at some time in history, it was created when it was "loaned" out by a bank.

3) The amount of money owed to banks is more than all the money in existence! So we cannot possibly get out of debt under this system. The bulk of this debt is in the form interest, which is an arbitrary amount of money banks demand in return, but never gave.

4) There is no money, in the real sense. Just checks, data stored on computers, and promises. It is all created by typing on a keyboard, and signing signatures. The only tangible assets in regard to money anymore is the collateral we pledge when we ask for a loan. The money they loan you comes from nowhere, but the assets you lose in foreclosure are real!

5) Because the US government borrows from the Federal Reserve, bankers have the power to influence our society and government by controlling finance. They decide to create (or not create) money depending on who's asking, and for what. They choose what projects get funded, and let other needs wither on the vine by starving them of working capital. This subtle yet immense power is more than enough to undermine democracy, and guide the course of a nation's history.

So what's the solution?

Simple. The public must demand that money must not be created and issued as loans from private banks. It must be something that is openly and publicly controllable, issuable, accountable, and interest-free.

Otherwise, a class of parasites will rise to power in society by cleverly disguising the fact that the money they are creating, spending, and buying the world up with is money that isn't even real.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means of payment out of nothing."

- Ralph M. Hawtery, British Secretary of Treasury

"When you or I write a check there must be sufficient funds in our account to cover the check, but when the Federal Reserve writes a check there is no bank deposit on which that check is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money."

- "Putting it Simply", Boston Federal Reserve Bank

"By this means government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft."

- Lord John Maynard Keynes, "Economic Consequences of Peace"

"The eyes of our citizens are not sufficiently open to the true cause of our distress. They ascribe them to everything but their true cause: the banking system... a system which if it could do good in any form is yet so certain of leading to abuse as to be utterly incompatible with the public safety and prosperity."

- Thomas Jefferson

"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented."

- Major L.B.Angus

"Of course, banks do not really pay out loans from the money they receive as deposits. If they did this, no additional money would be created. What they do when they make loans is to accept promissory notes in exchange for credits to the borrowers' transaction accounts. Loans (assets) and deposits (liabilities) both rise by the same amount."

- Chicago Federal Reserve booklet "Modern Money Mechanics"

"The regional Federal Reserve banks are not government agencies, but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations."

- Lewis vs. United States, 680 F. 2d 1239 9th Circuit 1982

"All the perplexities, confusions, and distresses in America arise, not from defects in the Constitution or confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation."

- John Quincy Adams

"I am afraid that ordinary citizens will not like to be told that the banks can, and do, create and destroy money; and they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of governments and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people."

- R. McKenna, Chairman, Midland Bank London

"The actual process of money creation takes place primarily in banks. Bankers discovered that they could make loans merely by giving their promise to pay, or bank notes, to borrowers. In this way banks began to create money. Transaction deposits are the modern counterpart of bank notes. It was a small step from printing notes to making book entries crediting deposits of borrowers, which the borrowers in turn could 'spend' by writing checks, thereby 'printing' their own money."

- Modern Money Mechanics, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debts."

- Henry Ford

"See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them; and gives it to persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen cannot do without committing a crime. Then abolish this law without delay, for it is not only an evil in itself, but also is a fertile source for further evils, for it invites reprisals. If such a law is not abolished immediately, it will spread, multiply and develop into a system."

- Frederic Bastiat

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

- Martin Luther King

"He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from oppression; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will one day reach himself."

- Thomas Paine

"I have never yet had anyone who could, through the use of logic and reason, justify the Federal Government borrowing the use of its own money . . . I believe that the time will come when people will demand that this be changed. I believe the time will come in this country when they will actually blame you and me and everyone else connected with Congress for sitting idly by an permitting such an idiotic system to continue."

- Wright Patman, Democratic Congressman 1928-76, Chairman, Committee on Banking & Currency 1963-75


john
13 Oct 08, 05:19
iceland

whats going on?


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