Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The End of QE and the Price of Gold

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Oct 28, 2014 - 03:19 PM GMT

By: Bob_Kirtley

Commodities

Background
The programme known as Quantitative Easing is due to be halted at the end of October, coinciding with the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee which is scheduled for 28/29 October 2014.  Monetary policy plays a big role in gold’s fortunes and so the strategies put in place by the central banks around the world need to be watched very carefully.


The Federal Reserve
St Louis Fed President James Bullard has suggested that tapering could be put on pause as inflation is not running as high as expected. However, he is only one member of the committee and we would expect the Fed to stay the course and end QE, it could then re-evaluate the situation with the data coming through towards the end of the year. The Fed has often said that their strategy is data driven and so far the jobs numbers, for instance, have achieved an acceptable level in their eyes. However inflation has not achieved the Feds target and the fear of deflation casts a dark shadow over the economy in the United States and across the world. The Fed has also stated that it will raise interest rates and it’s a question of when and not if; mid 2015 has been touted by some for the first increase. The problem arises when the economy falters, unemployment rises and inflation turns into deflation.

In the absence of a major event we would anticipate that the Fed will go ahead and end QE and will also talk in hushed words about the timing of an interest rate increase.

Gold

The end of QE and the talk of an interest rate rise will be supportive of the US dollar and inversely will put downward pressure on gold prices. This is just one factor that deserves consideration when trying to assess gold’s future movements. There are also a lot of other factors that go into this melting pot such as the slowing of the economies in Europe and what action Mario Draghi may take, the effect of the trade sanctions with Russia, the unrest in the Ukraine, the growing strength of ISIS, supply and demand, governmental restrictions on gold imports, etc.

The price of oil must also be kept in focus as it has fallen 20% in the last three months; which usually helps to curtail inflation and thus gold tends to trade lower.

Conclusion

Those of us who lived through the inflationary times of the late 70s and early 80s will remember just how high interest rates had to go before inflation was curbed. The base rate back then was around the 19% level prior to putting an end to gold’s historic rally.

So the point is that if and when the Fed decides to take action on interest rates then gold, silver and the associated mining stocks will take a tumble.

The Fed constantly reminds us that they are data driven and should the data turn soft then we could see the re-introduction of QE. This would indeed be the turning point that we have been waiting for and the catalyst, that just isn’t there at the moment, to ignite gold prices. Once we are sure that this sort of action is on the cards then we will hit the acquisition trail with some gusto. Until then we will continue to hold cash and trade to the short side.

It is important in these times not to be a ‘perma’ anything but to remain flexible and be able to trade in either direction at any given time.

In terms of timing; the summer doldrums have not been followed by a ‘fall’ boom for precious metals which in turn has caused more suffering for the mining sector. The Gold Bugs Index; the HUI has been a horror show losing 2/3rds of its value in the last 3 years as the chart below shows:

The HUI currently stands at 182 which is only 32 points above the low of 2008. Is it conceivable that the HUI could lose another 17% of its value? Absolutely and for those who have the cash this move down will present fantastic buying opportunities.

There are times to be fully invested and times to exercise a little caution. Right now we are not prepared to adopt a cavalier approach to investment in the precious metals or their associated producers as they have produced numerous of false dawns over the last few years and so we remain wary of them.

The next few days may give us an insight what the Fed have in store for us by way of monetary policy, which is in our view is the single most important element for gold bugs to watch.

Got a comment, fire it in, especially if you disagree, the more opinions that we have, the more we share, the more enlightened we become and hopefully the more profitable our trades will be.

Go gently.

Bob Kirtley
Email:bob@gold-prices.biz
URL: www.silver-prices.net
URL: www.skoptionstrading.com

To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address. Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 200

DISCLAIMER : Gold Prices makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided on this site. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This website represents our views and nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this website. We may or may not hold a position in these securities at any given time and reserve the right to buy and sell as we think fit.

Bob Kirtley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in