Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Price Rebounds but Gold Miners Struggle

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014 Oct 25, 2014 - 12:26 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Several weeks ago the entire precious metals space was extremely oversold and due for at the least, a reflex rally. Gold was down in nine of twelve weeks with Silver down in eleven of those twelve weeks. The miners experienced a nasty September and were down five consecutive weeks. With Gold rallying from $1185 to $1255, we would expect Silver and the mining stocks to rebound strongly in percentage terms. However, those markets have lagged Gold badly. The mining stocks are essentially back to their lows and Silver hasn’t fared much better. The recent stark underperformance of Silver and the mining stocks especially is a warning sign of further downside.


The weekly candle chart below plots Gold and Silver. We can see how Gold has rallied for a few weeks following its weekly close below $1200. Yet over the past two weeks Gold has tested $1250 and failed to close above it. This week Gold will close near the low of the week and below its 50-day or 10-week moving average. Gold is sitting less than 3% above important weekly support and remains below key short-term moving averages. Meanwhile, Silver has not touched $18 yet, let alone rallied back to previous support.

While Gold gained as much as $70/oz, the miners couldn’t sustain any gains. The weekly candle chart below is our top 40 index. It contains various gold and silver stocks and the median capitalization is $520 Million. The index has consistently outperformed GDXJ over the past two years. At present the index is barely holding onto important support. It rebounded for two weeks but closed nowhere near the highs of the week. It reached as high 343 this week but was sitting at 316 heading into Friday. If Gold breaks then this index is headed for a test of the 2013 lows. It’s a strong bearish warning when the higher quality companies are this weak.

Meanwhile, the HUI Gold Bugs index has already broken to new lows. It has declined eight straight weeks and could close at a new low today. In the chart we plot the HUI’s distance from its 200-day exponential moving average. The current reading is 18%. Major oversold readings can surpass 30%. The HUI can become much more oversold before it puts in a final bottom. Its trading at 185 and there isn’t strong support until the 155 to 168 range.

Gold has rallied as much as $70 but the action in Silver and the miners, the speculative components of the sector is very worrisome. It is reminiscent of the autumn of 2008 but to a smaller degree. The mining stocks lead the metal at key turning points and their recent performance continues to warn that the worst may not be over. The sector remains oversold but very vulnerable. The reprieve we wrote about two weeks ago could continue for a few more weeks or it could be ending now. In any event, please protect yourself. While we are at the tail end of a bear market, the miners could decline another 20% before the final low. If the sector declines 20% then certain stocks could decline more. Please stand aside for the time being. I see a potential lifetime buying opportunity emerging in the months ahead.

If you'd be interested in professional guidance in this endeavor, then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in