Stock Market Panic Cycle Shift
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Oct 24, 2014 - 12:47 PM GMT
You may recall that earlier this year I had identified several panic cycles. These cycles occur in discreet intervals divisible by 4.3 and multiples of 10.
For example, I had identified the panic Cycle from April 12 to July 5 (86 days) as a panic buying cycle. The next panic buying cycle occurred from August 7 to September 19 (43 days).
Then we had a panic selling episode from September 19 to October 15 shifting to 129 market hours. This panic rally lasted 43 market hours (to the minute!). The next panic decline may last 86 market hours, taking us near the close of Friday, November 7. Thus, the total decline may take 258 market hours.
The reason I say all this is that my model is based on days and not hours. Even though every turn was made on a pivot day, it appears to take a little more fine tuning to identify which pivot is significant and which is not. I am glad to have created the Model, but I am also learning that this whole concept of Cycles goes deeper every time I investigate it.
ZeroHedge correctly identified the rally as a panic buying surge.
The VIX, on the other hand, declined in 4.3 days. Based on that observation the VIX daily Cycle is still intact. It is expected to hit its Primary (Panic) Cycle high on Noember 5, but could extend for another two days beyond that day.
I need to run.
Regards,
Tony
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