Monetary Policy Killing The System
Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing Sep 20, 2014 - 09:28 AM GMTBy: Jim_Willie_CB
The byline should read MONEY VELOCITY HITS RECORD LOW, WHILE MONEY SUPPLY CONTINUES TO GO INTO ORBIT... SYSTEMIC FAILURE IS EVIDENT AS POLICY IS NOT STIMULUS AT ALL... THE PRINCIPAL CAUSE FOR THE BREAKDOWN IS MONETARY POLICY, WHICH IS STUCK IN PLACE.
The USFed monetary policy is killing the system, simply and boldly put. They call it stimulus, when the extreme accommodation is actually just a backdoor Wall Street bailout combined with a pass on the USGovt debt discipline. No debt limit is enforced anymore, a travesty. The United States is looking more like a Third World nation with each passing month, with colossal fraud, economic decay, war and sanctions, and no leadership. The US Federal Reserve has ventured into very dangerous ground, putting hyper monetary inflation as the installed policy, while making money free for the Interest Rate Swap machinery that operates the derivative for maintaining the easy policy.
So foreign creditors have largely exited the room, with no great entities to finance the yawning annual $trillion debt. So derivative machinery is relied upon to maintain the absurd 10-year USTreasury (TNX) yield at 2.60% without buyers. So asset markets like the US Stock Market go to monthly new high levels, despite the USEconomy mired in the worst recession since the Great Depression. The visible piece is shopping malls with one third of stores shuttered, and the jobless rate over 22% in the real world without rose colored glasses. These conditions cannot be sustained, especially since the credit machinery is all jammed. The big US banks are insolvent structures dedicated to the bond carry trade, where that same cheap money is used to invest, often with leverage, in the long-dated maturity USTreasury Bonds. The banks serve the casino, not the business sector.
STUCK MONETARY POLICY
In no way can the current easy money policy be reversed, and put into a normal mode. In no way can the accommodation be tapered. The entire Taper Talk is a lie, and always has been a lie. The Jackass called out the USFed last June and July, and was proved correct by September. Since that time, the USFed has been lying vigorously and creatively. The Belgium Bulge showed itself as a $400+ billion abscess visible to the world, hardly a real savings account by the small nation. It was either a Hidey Hole for USTBonds or else a loading depot for BRICS sourcing of Gold bullion for their upcoming central bank. In no way can the enormous bond carry trades be stopped. They are the only source of actual income for the big US banks. Their other source of narco funds money laundering. Doing so would put the carry trade engines into reverse, forcing an unwanted Bond Convexity episode of leveraged selling of USTreasury Bonds by the same large corrupted banks which are so clearly involved in the derivatives game. In no way can the USFed hike rates, since their own outsized bond portfolio would register huge losses, only to gain ugly publicity. They after all bought the top in bonds, and continue to buy the top in bonds every month that QE continues. They are the fools buying the asset bubble at the top. See a parallel in Japan.
Red light warning signals are all over the place. The biggest in the Jackass view is the Failures to Deliver. We are told that the demand for USTreasurys is huge by the market players. It might be moderate, but surely not huge, since savings is in shortage. When the Interest Rate Swaps are applied, using 0% money into the machinery tubes, the result is an artificial demand produced to purchase the same USTreasurys. The big US banks are required to follow through, or else to expose the entire sham game, a veritable Ponzi Scheme. The banks are growing in resentment. However, not enough USTBonds exist in the operating bond market to satisfy such outsized contrived demand out of machinery. The result is Failures to Deliver, the warning signal of a fabricated rigged market. This Third World nation has fancy machinery indeed.
SMOKING GUN GRAPHS IN CONTRAST
The answer to the US bond riddle lies in corrosive ruinous effect of monetary policy, now in its fourth year. They said the 0% ZIRP would be just for a few months, but they lied. The Jackass said in 2009 that it would be permanent. They said QE bond monetization would be just for a few months, but they lied. The Jackass said in 2011 that it would be permanent. We were taught by central bank mouthpieces for years that a little inflation is good, but a lot is bad. We were taught in economics classes that hyper inflation destroys the entire system eventually, like in Third World nations. Yet QE (hyper monetary inflation) and ZIRP (free money) respectively cause capital destruction with retired equipment and distorted asset prices with no reward to savers.
The two graphs show in clear terms that QE is not stimulus, and ZIRP is a wet blanket. Together they are causing economic collapse with systemic failure. The Jackass words have sounded exaggerated and fantastic for years, actually since the Lehman failure, a basic scuttle killjob done by Wall Street criminal banks in order to protect Goldman Sachs from sinking. The two graphs show a Money Velocity down almost 4-fold while Money Supply is up 3.5-fold. You decide if it translates to systemic failure. Jackass says resoundingly yes. This is broken US financial system and thus a broken USEconomy, the consequence of heretical injurious damaging monetary policy. The greater tragedy is that it cannot be removed. Putting a halt to the QE monetary spigot means letting the financial markets collapse, bond yields to rise, stock indexes to fall, carry trade to go into reverse, and consumer lending to dry up. So the QE spigot continues in a slow death dispensing acid, rather than causing a sudden death.
The story sold on the highly corrosive and assuredly ruinous monetay policy is of stimulus. The only stimulus is for the big US banks to continue recycling their worthless bond assets to the USFed as buyer of last resort. The USFed has been totally wrecked in the process, a good thing since the HQ of the banking crime syndicate. The only stimulus offered is to the big US banks to continue with carry trade projects instead of lending toward capital formation in the business sector. The big banks are able to keep the derivative game going with free money, to maintain the Whirling Dervish platform of vaporous mass. The result has been a systematic assault on capital. The USEconomy has entered a feedback loop of capital destruction, job cuts, and reduced activity. It cannot be stopped. The results of much lower Money Velocity stands as screaming evidence of failure in monetary policy. The moribund activity means capital is being ruined, not functioning, not producing the wanted output. The slower turnover in the USEconomy is not from hoarding of cash. The participants are suffering a shortage of money, often struggling to survive. Putting money in mattresses is an absurd concept when struggling to pay the rent and buy the food and pay the utilities. The beneficiaries of the easy money are the big US banks. They are also suffering a shortage of money, since the derivative holes are acting like sewers to drain their capital. Their capital ratios are not good, and the harsher Basel III rules have been delayed. No cash hoarding evident anywhere.
LOGICAL CONCLUSION
The logical end is systemic failure, USGovt debt default, war to defend the USDollar and the USTreasury Bond. The USDollar has become the ticket that when refused, invites war. The USTBond has become the toxic element in the banking systems. The Western chambers in the US, UK, EU refuse to liquidate the big banks and work toward the Gold Standard return. So the Eastern chambers in Russia, China, and BRICS nations will pursue the return to the Gold Trade Standard with a growing alliance in support. They are accumulating gold in volume.
The pathetic explanation is left as the final word, by the USFed. They are out of answers, out of policy solutions, and out of integrity. The central bank franchise system has failed. The bankers are cornered, some being murdered. Others might be prosecuted. They are the principal cause of the systemic failure, the other cause being the massive outsourcing initiatives over three decades and the outsized USGovt social welfare state. The bigger principal cause of the systemic failure is the US War Machine, which has been around longer than the debutante Fascist Business Model that made its introduction in 2002. Half the $17 trillion in USGovt debt comes from war spending. They defend the indefensible USDollar, but also the narco business. As footnote, Russian President Vladimir Putin committed two deeds that infuriated the Western bank cabal supra-national leaders. Putin kicked out the Rothschild bankers from his country. Putin interrupted the USGovt heroin trade supply routes out of Afghanistan. Like Abraham Lincoln 150 years ago, the elite banker chambers wish to remove Putin and to suppress Russia, but the sprawling nation has joined at the hip with China. Thus Russia cannot be isolated any more than a bear can be bear hugged. the nation spans 12 time zones and is a top supplier of numerous important commodities. The theme is a constant item in the Hat Trick Letter reports. The Russia & China bond is growing and will result in a marriage, the consummation being a baby called the Gold Trade Standard. The attempts by the USGovt to impose sanctions will result in the United States being isolated, another steady theme in the Hat Trick Letter.
The Federal Reserve published a report. It is laughable. They blame the public, the citizens, the victims. They talk endlessly of a sluggish recovery like fools and charlatans. THE FOLLOWING IS RUBBISH AND FLIMSY. The StLouis Fed stated the following.
"The issue has to do with the velocity of money, which has never been constant, as can be seen in the figure below . If for some reason the money velocity declines rapidly during an expansionary monetary policy period, it can offset the increase in money supply and even lead to deflation instead of inflation. During the first and second quarters of 2014, the velocity of the monetary base2 was at 4.4, its slowest pace on record. This means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4.4 times in the economy during the past year, down from 17.2 just prior to the recession. This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Fed’s large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. Thus, it is precisely the sharp decline in velocity that has offset the sharp increase in money supply, leading to the almost no change in nominal GDP. So why did the monetary base increase not cause a proportionate increase in either the general price level or GDP? The answer lies in the private sector's dramatic increase in their willingness to hoard money instead of spend it. Such an unprecedented increase in money demand has slowed down the velocity of money." Rubbish!! The surge of money killed capital!!
GOLD STANDARD RETURN
It is coming. It will be painfully slow in its return. It is the only answer, the avoided solution. As long as QE & ZIRP are in place, highly destructive forces will remain at work, ruining capital within economic structures, distorting asset values in financial markets, leading to gross misallocation of assets, and forcing the system into breakdowns under constant aggravated strain. The monetary policy cannot remain in place indefinitely, since so destructive and disruptive. Time is not on the bank cabal side. The Eastern Alliance will continue to work toward installation of the Gold Trade Standard. It requires and has successfully seen a growing boycott and rejection of the USDollar in trade settlement. The Chinese RMB has been making important inroads to establish Swap Facilities that avoid the USDollar in usage, while more RMB Hub sites are being constructed like giant pillboxes in the Global Monetary War.
The King Dollar is being displaced, kicked off its throne. Its squire the Petro-Dollar is undergoing demise. The Ukraine War is the USDollar Waterloo event. The Kiev Regime fascist leaders have begun to bug out, the IMF $3.2 billion loan funds now gone missing. The big Eastern energy deals are underwritten in Rubles and Yuan, no longer the USDollar, another recent correct Jackass forecast. The Saudi rejection of the USD in exclusive oil payments will be the crash heard around the world. The marriage between the Saudis and Chinese is a process well along, with each month featuring yet another high level conference. The Saudis will make the announcement in the coming weeks or months, as a genuflection before the Chinese, with a hat tip to the Russians. Soon the crude oil price will be set by the Russia-China tag team, priced in Yuan currency. When the Gold Trade Standard is entrenched, the diversification away from USTreasurys in the global banking system will become a torrent. Bank system practices will follow trade payment practices. When installed, it will cause prosperity in the East and havoc in the West.
The reaction by the USGovt and USFed will be full of intrigue and desperation. The USFed will be in overdrive with its interest rate derivative machinery active, to prevent a US debt default event or a visible derivative event with another whale beached in full view. The USGovt will be cornered into launching a new domestic currency, a Scheiss Dollar. The USEconomy will react in its own way, with price inflation, supply shortage, and growing chaos with violence. The hint of what comes is seen in the devastating situation in Venezuela, whose tragedy few are paying attention to. They are exporting their essential products (beans, rice, oil) in order to raise hard currency and to prevent a domestic currency collapse. The same will be done in the United States. The early example of exported essentials is of hayfeed for livestock, heading to China from US farms on a growing basis.
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by Jim Willie CB
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