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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

The Stock Market is Getting Edgy

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Aug 28, 2014 - 02:37 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

This morning’s Premarket is down pretty substantially. The news is making things worse for the market that was already in decline at 5:00 am. Although the news may be blamed for the decline, it was already built into the Cycles Model.

The high on August 26 is 27 years and a day (3.1416 * 8.6) from the high leading into the 1987 crash. If it follows the 43-day Panic Cycle then we may follow the exact same pattern as in 1987.


ZeroHedge reports, “Following the unexpected surge in Q2 GDP, which beat most analyst estimates, there was widespread expectation that based on real-time data, the revised Q2 print would be worse. So perhaps it is appropriate that the Bureau of Economic Analysis punked everyone once again, when moments ago it released the first revision to the Q2 GDP print, which instead of dropping to the consensus expected 3.9%, it instead rose to 4.2%, up from the 4.0% initial report.”

The Unemployment Weekly Claims data is as follows: “In the week ending August 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 298,000 to 299,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 300,750 to 301,000.”

These reports spell the death knell for QE.

VIX has broken above its Ending Diagonal formation and may be challenging the 50-day Moving Average this morning. This puts the VIX on an equities aggressive sell signal. The sell signal is confirmed above 13.51-13.62. Many traders start layering in short positions here and add to them as resistance levels are taken out.

Today is a good day for TNX to make its low. This is day 91 in the Cycles Calendar for TNX (90.3). I don’t expect it to make a new low.

More commentary later.

Regards,

Tony

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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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