Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Gap To Gap...Hit The Top...Reversal....Nothing For Either Side

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Aug 16, 2014 - 04:05 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The market came off the bottom with a series of gap ups as it back tested lost 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. The big question was would those moving averages get taken back out or would those levels act as a wall of resistance, cascading the market back down once hit. We got through the moving averages, and hit the 197.00 SPY gap. That is where the market rejected the move higher with Ukraine/Russia the catalyst to get things moving back down intraday. At the same time that news came out, we also saw the short-term sixty-minute RSI's hit extreme levels of overbought with some readings as high as 80.


80 RSI along with gap resistance, along with bad news from Russia, and down we went. 23 S&P 500 point off the top within forty-five minutes. Not bad at all. You can unwind a market very quickly with the right mix of events both fundamentally and technically. We are in a far more difficult environment now with regards to the bull rocking higher, so we can't be shocked that today's gap was short term. A third straight gap up the final top short term. The bears are happy we didn't get through S&P 500 197.00, while the bulls feel better about creating some gap ups on this back test. Neither side thrilled, but neither side in despair for now.

With the move off the bottom, and with today's top in place, we now understand where we are from a technical perspective, and neither side is going to be happy about this. The range is enormous. Spy 193.00 to Spy 197.00. In between is now total noise, and when a range is this wide and loose, you have to deal with tremendous whipsaw that can get very emotional. This is where the market takes down the most traders. Too much action for a lot of meaningless noise.

With the spread so wide you can enter a play, or a series of plays, and get shaken out very quickly thinking something is happening that in truth may not be happening at all. With forty points the spread, think of how dangerous it can be to get overly involved. Only when we break below 193.00 on a closing basis, or break above 197.00 on a closing basis, can we get excited about what's next. That can take some time, so be careful not getting overly involved when you shouldn't be. We are now in a very wide and very loose trading range. Dangerous the best word for it.

The bull-bear spread probably took a move higher this week sadly. It would have been best if it kept falling down in to the 20's as a spread. We closed last week at 30%. Now we're probably at 32/33%. Top was 46%. If we can get one more very-nasty leg down in a correction we'll get those levels down in the teens. How awesome that would be for the bulls, but that is still an unknown. Will the rates game prevent such a move lower? It's possible, but there's still every chance we'll see another strong move down. Be careful and play the 193 to 197 range appropriately. Watch to see which range breaks over time on a closing basis with force. Day to day folks.

Have a nice weekend!

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2014 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in