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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

ECB Thursday...Jobs Friday....Fireworks?.... Stock Market Froth Out Of Control..

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jun 05, 2014 - 10:15 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Fireworks could be in the cards for the market here. We have two huge events the next two mornings. We have the ECB voting on rate reductions tonight as well as deciding on a QE infusion. If the Euro zone gets what they want, we should see it rally, and that should spill over to our markets ahead of the open. If the market doesn't get what it wants, then the euro zone markets could crash out and things could get very tough for the bulls in the morning.

Draghi is under pressure to do the right thing for their economy, and the pressure usually gets him to do the right thing. He also can be a bit of a me-against-everyone from time to time, but I don't think he'll be playing any ego games with this type of situation, thus, I do expect the rate cut. I'm not nearly as sure about the QE part of the deal, so we shall see how the markets overseas react to what takes place.

Of course, tomorrow morning will be interesting, but so will Friday morning. We have the huge Jobs Report pre-market, and if the report mirrors the ADP Jobs Report from this morning, we're in trouble. The report today missed horribly, and this helped push our futures down pre-market this morning, before recovering as the day went along. I'm not sure our market can handle a really bad report for one critical reason. Sentiment! The bull-bear spread is now at a major sell-signal reading of 44.8%. It doesn't get much more bearish than that for the bulls for the short term.

Of course, it's only one important indicator, but when the spread is over 40% bulls-to-bears, you have to be prepared for a sudden and deep-sell episode. Timing it is truly impossible as the market often needs a catalyst to get rocking lower, but it can occur at any moment. When sentiment gets this bad you often see the market fall even on good news, thus, nothing is truly safe. That said, if the market does need a catalyst to get moving lower, the Jobs Report can be the thing the bears need to finally get rocking with force. Friday morning should also hold some fireworks. It won't be dull.

It's too bad the froth has ramped this hard. 44.8% is a real headache not to be ignored. Whenever the bulls hit 60%, the market really struggles. We're currently at 62.2%. It's not an immediate signal as the rest of the market is on a buy signal. Clearly, the daily charts look favorable, especially the Nasdaq. Price always trumps everything else, but this type of spread is really nasty from a blast off higher perspective. It can happen.

Nothing is impossible, but it really will be tough for the bulls to keep forcing upward action due to this headache. We watch 4204 down to 4186 on the Nasdaq, which is massive gap support. If that level area goes away, it's likely lights out for the bulls.

Again, one day at a time. See it and react. Don't anticipate too much.


Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2014

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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