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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Chop, Sadly Continues.....ISM Numbers Changing Unexpectedly....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jun 03, 2014 - 10:27 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


I find it annoying. How about you? Do you enjoy this nonsense? I don't, but this is what we have and must accept. The market tried hard to sell decently today. The Nasdaq was down over thirty points, thanks mostly to losses in Google Inc. (GOOG), and especially Apple Inc. (AAPL). AAPL is so heavily weighted, and at one point it was down ten points. Amazingly, even with AAPL down ten points, the Nasdaq was able to bounce back. Strength is strength, and this market continues to find a way, even when a leader says I'm tired, such as AAPL did today.

You have to hand it to the bulls for finding a way to rotate things around even when the very best stock can't find a bid. One would expect a nice drop in the Nasdaq, but it was not to be. Under performance for sure, but nothing terrible. So we chop on. The sentiment not yet kicking in even though the spread is over 40%. No big push down, even though the weekly and monthly charts have major headaches. So today was just another day in the process of a market that refuses to quit. Maybe too many are expecting the pullback, thus, it may take higher prices to get folks to think it can't happen, and then it finally does. Who knows. It's a mystery. For now, the market has shown no inclination to start any major correction lower.

Today was a very strange day, and yet another missile fired at the there's-a-conspiracy thing going on, and that the Government controls things if they're not happy with results. In other words, they're lying again. We had the ISM Manufacturing Report come out thirty minutes in to the trading session this morning. The number was 53.2. The expected number was neat 55.5. The market fell hard on that disappointment. Suddenly, and out of nowhere, they come out and say whoops, we made a mistake.

The number isn't 53.2, but instead it's actually 56.0. Then lowered to right at the expected number. It really turns people off and it explains in great detail why no one trusts our leaders. Sad but true. So who knows what number is the truth but after two changes it basically came in with the number expected. Can't make it up. The market rallied on those upgrades and was probably the primary reason as to why the market recovered.

Listen folks, as I always say, don't play the market with emotion. Follow the bouncing Nasdaq. The leader or froth haven of the market. It has a powerful gap from 4204 down to 4186. As long as that gap holds the Nasdaq, and, thus, the market is fine. It got down to 4207 today, and as one would expect, it bounced well from there. If and when we close below 4204 that's a red flag. If we close below 4186 that's a major league red flag. Follow price and that gap, and you'll be fine. Long exposure is fine above that full gap.

One day at a time folks in this bifurcated environment.


Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2014

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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