Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19
Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level - 15th May 19
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected - 15th May 19
US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - 15th May 19
Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' - 15th May 19
Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments - 15th May 19
Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins - 15th May 19
Defense Spending Is Recession Proof - Defense Dividend Stocks - 15th May 19
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II - 14th May 19
The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold - 14th May 19
Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? - 14th May 19
As cryptocurrency wallets become more popular, will cryptocurrencies replace traditional payments? - 14th May 19
How US Debt Will Reach $40 Trillion by 2025 - 14th May 19
Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China - 14th May 19
eBook - Greatest Tool for Trading? - 14th May 19
Classic Pitfalls for Inexperienced Traders - 14th May 19
Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again - 13th May 19
Why Rising Living Standard in China Offers Global Hope - 13th May 19
Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! - 13th May 19
How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends - 13th May 19
Amazon SCAM Deliveries for Fake Verified Purchaser Reviews "Brushing" - 13th May 19
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video - 13th May 19
US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update - 12th May 19
SAMSUNG - BC94.L - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks - 11th May 19
US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver - 11th May 19
Who Has More To Lose In A No Deal Brexit? - 11th May 19
Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside - 11th May 19
Make America’s Economy Great Again - 10th May 19
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals - 10th May 19
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - 10th May 19
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? - 10th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Stock Market Rally - Is this the End?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jun 03, 2014 - 10:25 AM GMT

By: John_Rubino

Stock-Markets

Eventually, every finance geek learns that calling market tops — at least publicly — is so hard that it’s not worth the reputation risk. This is especially true in an era of pervasive government manipulation, where price distortions can persist for far longer than any kind of rational analysis can justify.


And yet. For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. To take just a few examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio:

Margin debt has peaked

In good times, optimistic investors tend to borrow money against their stocks to buy more stocks. This “buying on margin” generally goes hand in hand with rising share prices, and tends to peak and then decline just before the markets turn down. As the following chart illustrates, margin debt hit a record in January, turned down in February, and is now falling hard.

Margin debt June 14

Interest rates are plunging

Rising interest rates are generally seen as a sign of a growing economy in which the demand for money is strong. Falling rates point to the opposite. Since equities are valued on future cash flows which in turn depend on future growth, falling interest rates are generally associated with weak equity markets. From Wall Street On Parade:

Is the Market Crazy? Treasurys Are Screaming Crisis While Stocks Yawn

The U.S. Treasury market, which is experiencing a flight to safety (that suggests a slowing economy, lower corporate earnings and thus a lower stock market in the future) is essentially saying that the current composite wisdom of the stock market is either nuts or the market is, indeed, rigged.

Stocks have been setting new highs of late while the yields on the benchmark 10-year and 30-year Treasurys decline. The 10-year Treasury began the year at a yield of approximately 3 percent and closed on Friday at a yield of 2.49. The 30-year Treasury started the year at a yield of approximately 4 percent and closed last week with a yield of 3.33 percent.

Market breadth is contracting

In a healthy bull market most stocks move up. This indicator — the percentage of stocks that rise along with the overall market — is known as market breadth, and lately it has turned highly negative. From the above Wall Street On Parade article:

Joseph Ciolli and Lu Wang of Bloomberg News report today that only “1.8 billion shares traded each day in S&P 500 companies last month, the fewest since 2008.” Equally worrying, say the reporters, is that when the S&P 500 index “hit an all-time high on May 23, only about 20 of its 500 companies reached 52-week highs…”

A market index setting new highs while only 20 of its 500 components set new highs, i.e. less than 5 percent, is sounding the same alarm bell as the bond market. The rising tide is not lifting all boats or to put it in Wall Street parlance, this is decidedly weak breadth.

The velocity of money is still plunging

This is a measure of how many times a typical dollar is spent in a given time period. Theoretically, in an optimistic, growing economy, dollars are spent frequently and therefore the velocity of money is high, while in a shrinking economy worried citizens tend to hoard their cash, resulting in a low money velocity. The following chart definitely paints the latter picture, though it has admittedly done so since the 1990s. The question today is whether there’s a point at which all the new dollars being pumped into the system fail to offset consumers’ reluctance to spend their dollars, and where that point might be. The answer is unclear, but the chart still looks ominous.

Velocity of money June 14

Now, do these and the many other bear market signals mean the current run is over? Not necessarily, because such indicators apply to normal markets, which this one clearly is not. The world’s governments are actively trying to inflate asset bubbles to make the average person feel rich enough to start spending again (thus sending the velocity of money back up to more traditional levels), and their effectively-unlimited printing presses give them plenty of ammunition. The European Central Bank, for instance, is about to start monetizing eurozone debt on a scale that, if it’s to have an appreciable effect, will be huge. China is easing bank lending standards and talking about other stimulus measures, while Japan’s central bank is buying bonds and encouraging the national pension plan to start buying riskier assets.

One could make the case that the financial markets are responding rationally to the prospect of trillions of new dollars looking for a home in stocks and bonds (and high-end real estate and fine art and the other preferred assets of the 1%). But the case can also be made that all of this manipulation hasn’t really affected fundamentals and that more of the same is unlikely to make much of a difference.

What we’re witnessing, in short, is a truly fascinating attempt by the world’s major governments to suspend the laws that have, thus far in human history, governed economics. And the signs of their imminent failure are spreading.

By John Rubino

dollarcollapse.com

Copyright 2014 © John Rubino - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

By John Rubino

dollarcollapse.com

Copyright 2014 © John Rubino - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules