Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Stock Market Increasing Technical Weakness - 22nd July 19
What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? - 22nd July 19
Stock Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready? - 22nd July 19
Anatomy of an Impulse Move in Gold and Silver Precious Metals - 22nd July 19
What you Really need to Know about the Stock Market - 22nd July 19
Has Next UK Financial Crisis Just Started? Bank Accounts Being Frozen - 21st July 19
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 - 21st July 19
What’s With all the Weird Weather?  - 21st July 19
Halifax Stopping Customers Withdrawing Funds Online - UK Brexit Banking Crisis Starting? - 21st July 19
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Crude Oil Price for the Bulls or Bears?

Commodities / Crude Oil Jun 02, 2014 - 06:29 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

On Friday, crude oil lost 0.61% as disappointing U.S. economic data and profit taking weighted on the price. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude declined below $103, approaching its first downside target. What’s next?

On Friday, the data showed that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked up to 81.9, disappointing  analytics expectations for a reading of 82.5. Additionally, the Commerce Department reported that personal spending in the U.S. dropped 0.1% last month, also below expectations for a 0.2% rise, while U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (without food and energy) rose 0.2% in April, in line with expectations. These disappointing data fueled worries that demand in the largest oil-consuming nation wouldn't be strong enough to reduce high supplies.


As a reminder, crude oil stocks climbed to 393 million barrels last week, not far from the record high of 399.4 million barrels reached in the week ended April 25, adding to demand concerns. Despite this build, the price of light crude moved higher as bigger-than expected drop in gasoline supplies and shrinking inventories in the Oklahoma overshadowed the above-mentioned increase in crude oil stocks. In reaction to this, investors locked in gains from Thursday's rally and sold the commodity for profits, pushing the price lower on Friday. Despite this fact and rising domestic supplies, crude oil ended the month up 3%, as traders focused on falling inventories in the Oklahoma.

North or south? Where will the commodity head next?  Let’s look for answer on the charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Looking at the weekly chart, we see that the medium-term picture hasn’t changed much as crude oil still remains below the blue resistance line based on the recent highs (the upper border of the triangle). Therefore, what we wrote in our last Oil Trading Alert is up-to-date:

(…) If this line holds, we will likely see a pullback and the nearest support will be the 50-week moving average (currently at $100.80) (…) the last week’s increase materialized on relative small volume, which questions the strength of oil bulls. On top of that, the RSI approached the level of 60. We saw similar reading in April and also earlier in March. Back then, such readings preceded declines. Therefore, if history repeats itself once again, we may see a correction in the coming week (or weeks).

Having said that, let’s focus on the very short-term picture.

Quoting our previous Oil Trading Alert:

(…) the previously-broken lower border of the rising trend channel successfully stopped further improvement and the commodity reversed. Additionally, sell signals generated by the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are still in play. Therefore, we remain bearish and see this upswing as nothing more than a verification of the breakdown below the black dashed line. If this is the case, the commodity will extend losses in the nearest future and the first downside target will be around $102.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire May rally is.

As you see on the daily chart, oil bears almost realized the above-mentioned scenario on Friday, pushing the commodity to the daily low of $102.40. If the support level created by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement holds, we may see a rebound in the coming day. Nevertheless, if it doesn’t stop the selling pressure, we will see further deterioration and the next target for oil bears will be the black medium-term declining support line (currently around $102).

Summing up, crude oil extended losses, approaching its first downside target. Therefore, we remain bearish and see Thursday’s upswing as a verification of the breakdown below the resistance line (the lower border of the rising trend channel), which is a strong bearish signal that suggests that we’ll see lower values of crude oil in the coming day (days).

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): Short. Stop-loss order at $105.50.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules