Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market New All Time Highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 May 31, 2014 - 04:20 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

For a four day trading week the market did fairly well. It opened at new all time highs on Tuesday. Then made higher highs, with small pullbacks along the way, every day this week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.50%, and the DJ World gained 0.75%. On the economic front reports continue to come in higher. On the uptick: durable goods, FHFA housing, consumer confidence/sentiment, pending home sales, personal income, the PCE, Chicago PMI, the WLEI, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: personal spending, Case-Shiller and Q1 GDP. Next week we get the ISM indices, monthly Payrolls and the FED’s Beige book.


LONG TERM: bull market

We are now 62 months from the March 2009 bear market low, and this market is still making new all time highs. During this period the SPX has gained 188%. Quite impressive. Despite this tremendous gain we do not see the bull market nearing an end just yet. There are still several trends that need to unfold, and a possibly very steep correction soon.

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1], consisting of five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but now Major waves 3 and 5 are subdividing. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late 2011, and Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early 2014. Major wave 5 has been underway since February.

When Major 5 concludes it should end Primary wave III. Then a potentially steep, multi-month, correction will follow for Primary IV. Typically, during bull markets, Primary waves II and IV are similar in depth and duration. Primary II took five months to unfold, and the market lost 22% during the decline. We are expecting Primary IV to last about three months with a market loss of 15+%. Then Primary V should take the market to new highs to conclude the bull market. Thus far we are maintaining our bull market target range of SPX 1970 to 2070 by Q3/Q4.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

For the past several weeks we have been providing technical evidence why the steep correction in the NDX/NAZ, the choppiness in the SPX/DOW, and seasonality factors would not stop the market from making all time new highs soon. Obviously our work has paid off. Our work in the NDX/NAZ was clearly the key to this conclusion.

Now that both indices are in confirmed uptrends, we still expect the NAZ to make new bull market highs before its uptrend ends. The NDX already accomplished that goal this week. Currently, the NAZ is still 2.8% below its previous high. This suggests, even if the NAZ outpaces the SPX 2 to 1, in percentage terms, the SPX should hit the OEW 1956 pivot.

After reviewing the internal counts within all four major indices uptrends. We found the SPX/NDX/NAZ appear to be all similar. All three appear to be in Minute iii of Minor 3 of their respective uptrends. The DOW, however, looks to be quite different. It continues to act like it is in some sort of diagonal triangle pattern from its Major wave 4 low in February. While this is not a problem for the general market. It does help to confirm that the other three indices are in a Major wave 5 topping pattern. Medium term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remains positive from SPX 1877, with the reversal level now 1918.

Minor 1 rose from SPX 1814-1885 (71 pts.). With Minor 3 reaching SPX 1924 on Friday, it is currently only a couple of points longer than Minor 1: SPX 1851-1924 (73 pts.). If this one to one relationship is to remain. Then the OEW 1929 pivot should offer some serious resistance for much of next week. This would allow time for the smaller waves, yet to unfold, to complete. Adding to this possibility is the series of negative divergences on the hourly chart, and the fact that the market has not had one notable pullback in seven trading days. Next week could be quite choppy. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.2%.

The European markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.8%.

The Commodity equity group were all lower losing 1.8%.

The DJ World index continues to uptrend and gained 0.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week.

Crude remains choppy losing 1.5% on the week.

Gold broke down through $1260 support, remains in a downtrend, and lost 3.3% on the week.

The USD appears to be in an uptrend but ended flat on the week. Both the EUR and CHF are quite oversold and due for at least a bounce.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am. Tuesday: Factory orders and Auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP index, Trade deficit, ISM services and the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims. Friday: the Payrolls report, the Unemployment rate, and Consumer credit. The ECB meets on Thursday, and FED governor Powell gives a speech on Friday. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules