Britain's Zombie Marginal Democracy to Deliver Labour General Election 70 Seat Majority?
ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 25, 2014 - 02:20 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The housing market is booming and the economy within a matter of months will have recouped the whole of the loss of the last Labour governments catastrophic drop in GDP of over 7%, the worst since the 1930's Great Depression. But still there has yet to be any feed back towards an improvement in Tory general election prospects as illustrated by the local election results that show that the Conservatives currently stand in a far worse state than where they were at the start of the Coalition government as the surge in UKIP votes claims seven Tory votes for every one Labour vote taken.
The dire state of affairs for the Conservative party were no better illustrated than by private opinion polling by Lord Ashcfroft on Friday 23rd of May of 26,000 voters in 26 marginal continues that would translate into a 6.5% swing from Conservatives to Labour resulting in a loss of 83 Tory MP's to Labour, enough to give Labour an outright election victory on a majority of 70 seats.
Liberal Democrats Self Destruct
Whilst the Conservatives are smarting from the impact of UKIP, the Lib Dems have been paying the price for betraying virtually everything that they stand for so as Nick Clegg and a few fellow MP's could drive around in chauffeur driven cars. After losing over 250 councilors and look set to lose ALL of their 11 MEP's the party is gone into self destruct mode with highly vocal calls for Nick Clegg to be dumped as leader barely 12 months away from the general election.
Off course Nick Clegg has no choice but to go, but first he will secure himself a lucrative job in the EU.
The bottom line is that the Liberal Democrats have a destiny with extinction no matter who leads them into the next general election as they look set to be replaced by UKIP as Britain's third party of protest.
Britain's Marginal Zombie Democracy
The local election results and Ashcrofts polling reveals the truth of Britain at best being described as a marginal democracy as the political parties take their heartlands tribal voters for granted, expecting voters to turn out zombie style at each election to mark their X against whomever the party elites put up for election, whilst focusing their attentions primarily on the 20% or so of swing voters in the 80 or so marginal constituencies which translates into politicians pandering towards wooing as few as 5% of British voters as the other 95% of voters do not determine the outcome of elections! A postcode election lottery of where your vote counts and where it does not count.
The local election results form the Peoples Republic of South Yorkshire illustrates Britain's marginal zombie democracy in action.South Yorkshire Local Election Results 2014
Sheffield - Labour Hold
| Party | Seats | Change |
| Labour | 59 | +1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 18 | -6 |
| Green Party | 4 | +2 |
| United Kingdom Independence Party | 3 | +3 |
Labour's iron grip over the people of Sheffield remains where the cities turkeys continued to vote for Christmas. So it is business as usual for more crackpot projects such as cutting bin collections by 50% to save on costs that resulted in costs actually increasing. Creating mega-primary schools that parents don't want to send their children to, or spending £18 million on the Moor market that no one can visit due to the bus gate nazi's and lack of parking.
Perhaps it was the bussing in of over 40,000 eastern european (Labour government conspiracy) new Labour voters over the years that continues to ensure Labours stranglehold over Britain's fifth largest city? The price being paid for that is literally building pressures that look set to explode this summer. - 17 Jan 2014 - Sheffield Roma Riots 2014 Warns Labour MP David Blunkett - Immigration Cultural Catastrophe
Rotherham - Labour Hold
| Party | Seats | Change |
| Labour | 50 | -8 |
| United Kingdom Independence Party | 10 | +10 |
| Conservative | 2 | -2 |
| Independent | 1 | 0 |
Rotherham saw a rebellion against the decades old dictatorship, whilst not enough to impact on the huge majority as many remain brainwashed into blindly voting Labour despite Labour having wrecked the city, leaving its centre as a literal ghost town. Still the election result will act as a wake up call for Rotherham's Labour ruling elite to actually pay some attention to the people of Rotherham's concerns.
Doncaster - Labour Hold
| Party | Seats | Change |
| Labour | 48 | -2 |
| Conservative | 8 | 0 |
| Independent | 6 | +2 |
| United Kingdom Independence Party | 1 | +1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 0 | -1 |
Doncaster another Labour dictatorship full of zombie voters who complain loudly but fail to act against decades of programming.
Barnsley - Labour Hold
| Party | Seats | Change |
| Labour | 53 | +1 |
| Independent | 5 | 0 |
| Conservative | 4 | -1 |
| Vacant | 1 | 0 |
Labours iron grip over Barnsley remains as clearly the people favour election bribes and freebies over freedom.
General Election Forecast 2014 - Stealth Conservative Victory?
Whilst the Labour elite may be congratulating themselves for being on course for an outright election victory, allowing Ed Milliband to relax and literally stuff his face with a bacon sandwich,instead the underlying fundamentals of an fast accelerating economy is likely to result the exact opposite outcome by the May 2015 general election than that which the journalists / political commentariat are liberally regurgitating at length today.
My longstanding forecast for the outcome of the next general election is as excerpted below -
30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015
In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.
Therefore today's media coverage of Labour winning on a majority of 70 seats belies the probable reality of a stealth conservative election victory that will take many by surprise, just as had Major's 1992 election victory when virtually everyone had been expected Kinnocks Labour party to win.
At worst, depending on how well UKIP actually do at the general election i.e. if they are able to translate their 20% of the vote into actual seats or if UKIP voters see the disaster Ed Milliband would be and vote tactically to keep Labour out, then we may end up with a Conservative / UKIP Coalition government, which at this time remains a low probability outcome as UKIP will be lucky to even win 10 seats.
The bottom line is Ed Milliband is today's Neil Kinnocks, meaning that the 5% of voters who actually determine the outcomes of elections will BLINK at the ballot box regardless of what the opinion polls imply right upto polling day.
Scottish Independence and the Balkanisation of Britain
The Scottish Independence referendum has the potential to cause great disruption to what in effect would be the end of the 300 year old entity of the united Island of Britain, which as I have often written that a YES vote would literally sow the seeds for the balkanisation of Britain as what remains of the UK literally starts to rip itself apart for the status quo of what was taken for granted would no longer exist.
Recent news illustrates that the approaching Scottish Independence vote has already galvanised agitants to blow on the embers for Cornish independence as they wave their aptly coloured Cornish black funeralesk flag that continued with calls of autonomy literally at the other end of Britain from the Northern and Western Isles with calls for devolution from Edinburgh and even calls for their own parliament that sows the seeds not only for the balkanisation of Britain but also of an Independent Scotland that following a YES vote would soon start to fragment as for instance the bordering regions would reassert their separate identity that has far more in common with the of North England than Scotland, formerly known as the kingdom of Northumbria that stretches from Edinburgh in the north to Sheffield in the south. Whilst the Northern Isles see themselves as having more in common with Norway than Scotland.
So if Alex Salmond does succeed in his cunning plan for greater powers then he will likely go down in history as the first and last Prime Minister of Scotland as we know it today which effectively means a Yes vote on 18th September will be Scotland voting to commit suicide.
Where the next election is concerned clearly this would mean that the next parliament would not run for 5 years but instead a new general election would take place soon after Scottish Independence day which means even if Labour did manage to pull off a miraculous election win in May 2015, however they may not last even a year in office before the next general election was called in May 2016.
However my view remains that the people of Scotland will blink at the brink and not be seduced by SNP fanaticism which will not only save Scotland but the whole of the Island of Britain from the start of a sequence of events that would be far more catastrophic than anything experienced since World War 2.
For in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts of the UK economy, housing market and general election outcome see the New UK Housing Market Ebook available for FREE DOWNLOAD (Only requirement is a valid email address).
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By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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