I have been attempting to find the reason for the triple bottom at 1814, 1815 and 1816. The best I can figure is that SPX is finding support at the 120-day moving average and Wave [ii] is expanding for another challenge of the trendline. It appears to be a desperate situation. The powers that be managed to re-cross the trendline in February, so there may be an attempt to duplicate that event.

The alternate view of this scenario is that, since we can see three waves down, it may be a [larger degree] Wave (A) and we are now in a Wave (B) retracement. Wave (C) will be the barn burner that may have to crack the larger Orthodox Broadening Too with its target near 1300.00.

The NDX has seven waves, which may also qualify as a Wave (A). The waves overlap, which confirms that view.

The support in the NDX chart is clearer…it’s the mid-Cycle support at 3415.09. I haven’t had time to re-label the waves, but I would have to conclude that this is the most probable scenario.

This is where it gets interesting, since we may now have a shorter Wave [c] situation again. If so, there may be a flash crash once the indexes drop below the supports that I have portrayed.

Regards,

Tony

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