Another Stock Market FOMC Mini-Drama

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Today’s market provided a familiar drama for FOMC Wednesdays. The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range from the opening bell to the 2 PM release of the latest FOMC statement. The index immediately dropped about ten points with the not-surprising statement of another $10B cut to the asset purchase program. But the more dramatic plunge came during Chair Yellen’s press conference, when she quantified the “considerable time” after the end of QE to the start of Fed Fund rate hikes as “around six months.” The index promptly fell to its -1.17% intraday low at 3:10 PM. Subsequent buying essentially halved the loss to 0.61% at the close.

With the hint of rate hikes, the yield on the 10-year rose 10 bps from yesterday’s close. The interim high was 3.04% at the end of 2013.

Here is a snapshot illustrating this afternoon’s tempest in a teapot.

Despite the Fed drama, volume on today’s trade, while higher than during the two-day rally that preceded it, was still off its 50-day moving average.

The S&P 500 is now up 0.67% for 2014.

Here is a longer perspective, starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

- Phil

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

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