Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Fools Bears Again....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Mar 18, 2014 - 12:06 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

Just when everything was set up for a big fall lower after last week's action, the market fools them again with a big gap up today that held for the most part. I can't blame them for thinking the market would fall hard today, especially with all the turmoil going on the Ukraine. Personally, I thought the odds were against the market today. But that goes to show you that until you get the necessary technical breakdown below key support, you don't venture to the dark side too soon. It can cause unnecessary pain. We're not even close to that breakdown level, or the key 50-day exponential moving average on the S&P 500, currently at 1832. We got close after Friday's close, but the bears could not find the necessary follow through today with a big gap down, which would have put 1850 resistance in the rear view mirror.


The gap down would have tested those key 50's, and had the bears dancing, but it was not meant to be. Another failure on their part, but all hope is not lost for them. They still have massive negative divergences on those weekly charts to hang their hopes upon, not to mention a little bit on the sentiment side of things. So, while today did fool the masses, it was not a grand day for the bulls. They did what they needed to do, but they are facing some ugly technicals on those weekly charts, which should not be ignored by anyone who loves to be long only. If, and probably when, they kick in some day it will get very ugly for the bulls. But that has still not shown its face.

There are plenty of potential excuses to hit this market folks. If you study the daily charts, you can see any move higher will almost definitely bring about some nasty negative divergences. We all know the weekly divergences are terrible, with many monthly charts overbought to throw some icing on the cake. I know it seems as if the market can't and won't fall with any sustainable force, but be careful not to let your guard down. It's when you think it can't do something it usually does.

Divergences kick in when they want to, not on our time, but they are quite pronounced on those longer-term charts. One way or the other they will have to be worked off. Lateral can do it, but it doesn't seem like the best thing to do since it would take so long to accomplish. A nasty correction would cure it a lot faster. That correction, however, will do its deed when it feels like it and not before, so again, be careful front running things. It can get you in a lot of trouble. There are global issues as well, of course, but when technicals set up badly on many time frames with bad divergences, relax a little bit. But again, avoid froth.

In the end, we all know two key levels. The old highs on the S&P 500 are at 1883, and the 50-day exponential moving average is at 1832. Whichever breaks first is likely the beginning of a more directional move. Anything in between is nonsense and noise. If you trade a lot use those two levels as your guide. The 50's do change slightly so keep up with that as well. We'd be best served with a sharp correction so as to unwind things, but there's no answers yet on what's on deck.

Keep it light between that key range. It'll go away soon enough.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2014 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in