Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bull Market New Highs

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Mar 01, 2014 - 06:48 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market opened the week with a rally to new highs by noon Monday. After that it tested and retested the 1841 pivot four times, day traders delight, with the last test Thursday morning. Then the market hit an even higher high on Friday, before again selling off again. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.30%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%, and the DJ World index was +1.00%. Economic reports for the week were again slightly biased negatively, for the fourth week in a row. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, the FHFA index, new/pending home sales, the Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment. On the downtick: consumer confidence, durable goods orders, Q4 GDP, median new home prices, the WLEI (4th week in a row), the M-1 multiplier and weekly jobless claims were higher. Next week we get reports on the ISM, the FED’s beige book and monthly Payrolls.


LONG TERM: bull market

Last week we discussed the wave relationships the NDX/NAZ and the SPX/DOW had over the past, more or less, 30 years. The patterns that have unfolded during the past four bull markets and, now the fifth - this one. To recap, the NDX/NAZ have two more uptrends to complete before they can top in a Primary wave III. This suggests Major wave 5 of Primary III in the SPX/DOW will subdivide. Just like Major waves 1 and 3 of Primary III. Nothing out of the ordinary. Just something unexpected considering the characteristics of this bull market. Which has been weak and short fifth waves.

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of a new multi-decade Super cycle bull market. Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. During Primary I’s five Major waves, only Major wave 1 subdivided. During this Primary III, it appears Major waves 1, 3 and 5 are all subdividing. Not unusual for a third wave. What is unusual, is that this market is already about 20% above its previous 2007 all time high. And, we are only in Cycle wave [1] of a five Cycle Super Cycle bull market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

With the SPX/NDX/NAZ in confirmed uptrends, and the DOW only points away from confirming, we can now count the January SPX 1851 high as Intermediate wave one, and the February SPX 1738 low as Intermediate wave two. Intermediate wave three has been underway since that low. There is about a 20% probability that the SPX 1738 low was a Minor a, and this uptrend is Minor b, of an irregular a-b-c Intermediate wave two. We give this a possibility since the DOW has been lagging quite a bit. The SPX/NDX/NAZ have already hit new bull market highs, and the DOW has not.

We reviewed the long term count, and wave relationships, of Primary III to get an idea of where Int. three should end. If the probabilities hold up, Intermediate wave three underway, and the market characteristics hold as well. Then we should expect an Intermediate wave three top in May/June around the overlapping OEW 1962 and 1974 pivots, or the 2019 pivot. Naturally if this uptrend is only a B wave, then the timeframe will move further out. But the pivot ranges should remain about the same. Medium term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. We dropped the 1884 pivot since it no longer applies to this wave structure.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1851 and the 1841 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1859 and the 1869 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral after getting extremely overbought on Friday. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1852.

The current uptrend can again be counted in two ways. Thanks to the continued volatility over the past week. We can count a clear five waves up to SPX 1848, a pullback to 1825, as Minor waves 1 and 2. Then a series of subdividing smaller waves for the early stages of the next five waves up of Minor wave 3. This count remains on the SPX charts and has a 50% probability.

We can also count again, five waves up to SPX 1848 to complete Minor 1. But now the pullback to SPX 1825 as only Minute a, of an irregular a-b-c Minor wave 2. This count suggests Minute b may have topped at SPX 1868, or slightly higher, before Minute c drops to around SPX 1825 to complete an irregular flat. This count is in green on the DOW charts and has a 30% probability. The count in red is the 20% probability count noted in the medium term section.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were quite mixed on the week ending only slightly positive.

The European markets were mostly higher gaining 0.8%.

The Commodity equity group were also mixed and lost 1.3%.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 1.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.5% for the week.

Crude continues its uptrend gaining 0.3% for the week.

Gold has run into a negative divergence in its uptrend and lost 0.3% on the week.

The USD continues to downtrend losing 0.6%. But is getting close to a long term low.

NEXT WEEK

Busy week ahead economically. Monday: Personal income/spending and the PCE at 8:30, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am, then monthly Auto sales during the day. Wednesday: the ADP index, ISM services and the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Factory orders. Friday: the monthly Payrolls report, the Trade deficit, and Consumer credit. Tuesday: FED governor Powell testifies before the Senate. Let’s hope the upcoming week will be a bit less volatile. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in