Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Crude Oil Trading Alert: Oil Price Hits Fresh Monthly High

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 10, 2014 - 04:13 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 2.27% as the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after a monthly U.S. employment report came in weaker than expected. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude extended gains and rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in more than a month.


The U.S. Labor Department showed that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January (well below expectations for a 185,000 increase). It’s worth noting that it was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring. Friday’s report also showed that 142,000 jobs were added in the U.S. private sector last month, below the 189,000 that economists had expected.

These lower-than-expected numbers have helped push the price of light crude higher by weakening the dollar, making crude oil cheaper for buyers using foreign currencies. Thanks to the recent increases, light crude climbed 2.78% in the previous week and it was the fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Having discussed the above, let’s move on to the technical changes in crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Looking at the above chart, we see that the situation has improved significantly as crude oil broke above the strong resistance zone (created by the 200-day moving average, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire Aug.-Jan. decline and the upper border of the rising trend channel), which is a strong bullish signal. According to theory, if the breakout is not invalidated, we may see further improvement and the upside target would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that although crude oil climbed above $100, it still remains below the December high, which serves as the nearest resistance at the moment. Additionally, when we take a closer look at the indicators, we see that there are negative divergences between the CCI, Stochastic Oscillator and light crude. On top of that, both indicators are overbought, which suggests caution.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let’s take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).

Looking at the above chart, we see that the CFD extended gains and hit a fresh monthly high of $100.18. With this upswing, WTI Crude Oil broke not only above the previous high, but also above the strong resistance zone created by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire Aug.-Jan. decline, the upper blue line (which is also the upper border of the rising trend channel) and the 173.2% Fibonacci projection.

Similarly to what we wrote in the case of crude oil, this is a strong bullish signal. However, despite this growth, the CFD still remains below the December high (which is reinforced by a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern). As you see on the daily chart, earlier today, this resistance level encouraged oil bears to act and we saw first attempt to invalidate the breakout above the upper border of the rising trend channel. If the buyers fail and the CFD closes the day below this support line, it will be a strong bearish signal that will likely trigger further deterioration. At this point it’s worth noting that the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, which may encourages sellers to act. Nevertheless, as long as WTI Crude Oil remains above the upper border of the rising trend channel, another attempt to move higher can’t be ruled out.

Summing up, the situation has improved significantly as crude oil broke above the strong resistance zone and climbed above $100 on relative high volume. With this upswing, light crude (and also the CFD) approached the December high. If this resistance level is broken and the breakout above the upper border of the rising trend channel is not invalidated, we may see further improvement and the upside target would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement. On the other hand, taking into account negative divergences between indicators and light crude, an attempt to return to the trend channel can’t be ruled out.

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: bullish
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, there were no changes in crude oil that justify opening short or long positions at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules