Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Buy Oil Stocks Shielded from Middle East Uncertainty

Commodities / Oil Companies Jan 13, 2014 - 03:10 PM GMT

By: Submissions

Commodities

Richard Cox writes: As most investors know, the seemingly constant threat of conflict in the Middle East has the ability to create drastic volatility in oil.  The most recent example of this has been seen in Syria, which only accounts for 0.5% of world oil production (500,000 barrels per day).  But the possibility of a disruptive chain reaction has been enough to put markets on edge and bring increased volatility to oil and most energy-related assets.  Syria’s close ties with Iran, the possibility of a civil war in Iraq, and near-constant turmoil in Egypt mean that economic sanctions could be seen at any time. 


“If this occurred,” said Sandip Sekhon, markets analyst at AlphaForecast.com,  “the impact would be much more significant as these regions account for a larger percentage of daily oil production -- 3.5 million barrels.”  For investors with a lower risk tolerance, it makes sense to take positions in assets that are able perform in a stable fashion in either scenario (heightened conflict or relative peace).  Those looking to gain exposure to oil might see this as a near impossibility but there are stocks that are largely sheltered from the volatile political environment in the Middle East.  Here are two strong selections that are also accompanied by hefty dividends, making these stocks able to generate gains even if oil prices were to take a tumble from their elevated levels. 

Alternatives in the Oil Space

First, we look at French company Total (TOT), which is the fifth-largest publicly traded oil and gas producer in the world.  Market valuations for this stock tend to trade in-line with the dominant trends seen in oil prices, so it is not surprising that the stock has more higher by more than 10% year-to-date.  Recent agreements with China Petroleum to develop resource sites in Tajikistan put the company in a better position to capitalize on rising demand in Asia’s emerging economies.  By 2020, Chinese oil imports are expected to rise above $500 billion annually, which would make it the world’s largest market.  Total’s diversified portfolio includes resources in Australia and Africa, along with its recent purchases in Egypt. 

But the company’s total exposure to volatile regions is relatively insignificant at around 8%, and when we consider the strong dividend yield (nearly 5.5%), the company is a good candidate for gaining protected exposure to oil markets.  Total is one of the industry leaders in extracting oil cheaply and commanding high prices for its products, which is reflected in last year’s 8% sales growth ($266 billion in 2012) and 2.4% rise in operating income.  Total expects to see annual production to increase by 3% until 2015, and output levels to reach 3 million barrels per day by 2017. 

Next, we look at Enerplus (ERF), which is the biggest North American oil and natural gas income fund.  Based in Calgary, Enerplus invests in mature development properties in Western Canada and has seen sharp rallies since hitting its lows in April.  This puts the company in a strong position as one of the biggest sources of U.S. oil imports.  In 2012, 2.8 million barrels of Canadian oil were shipped to the U.S., which was roughly twice the amount exported by Saudi Arabia.  The company’s earnings report for the second quarter showed that annualized production levels grew by 10%, putting the company on a solid path to to hit stock valuations above $20 before the end of the year.  This, along with its excellent dividend yield (nearly 6.4%), make the stock a great way of gaining oil exposure without the added risk of further turmoil in the Middle East.

Richard Cox is a university teacher in international trade and finance. Lessons in macroeconomics and price behavior in equity markets. He writes for MarketBulls.net, BinaryOptionShark.com,TheStreetSeeking Alpha, and the Motley Fool.Investing strategies in these articles are based on technical and fundamental analysis of all the major asset classes (stock indices, currencies, and commodities). Trade ideas are generally suggestive of time horizons of one to six months.

© Copyright Richard Cox 2014

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in