One Million Romanian and Bulgarian's to Descend upon Elysium - Britain's Immigration Catastrophe
Politics / Immigration Jan 02, 2014 - 02:42 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
It should not come as any surprise to most that Britain continues to experience what amounts to out of control immigration as the latest manifestation of which is the start of a horde of Romanian and Bulgarian workers and benefits claimers that if follow what transpired during the past decade will turn out to be 20 times the academic estimates. The recent movie Elysium depicts what in many respects has been taking place in the UK this past decade as hordes of economic migrants from across the world have descended upon Elysium (Britain) that under the weight of which risks Britain's economic social and cultural destruction.
The Romanian and Bulgarian Benefits Plague
Whilst many mainstream politicians of both Britain, Bulgaria and Romania may argue that those who will come to the UK will mostly be along the lines of the last mass migration from the likes of Poland i.e. young hard working individuals, however there are two problems in that most of the young hard working Bulgarians and Romanians have already migrated (estimated 300,000) to the UK during the past 5 years via a whole host of avenues such as work permits and low skilled quota schemes, and the fake self employment loop hole, secondly that virtually all of these are low paid workers who are in receipt of TAX CREDITS, thus the net effect of eastern european workers is to INCREASE the tax burden as LESS is paid in taxes than is paid out as TAX CREDITS.
The current situation of a completely open door policy is further exacerbated because it is not just the Bulgarian's and Romanian's from the countries of origin that could flood Britain but also the estimated 3 million who have already migrated to the Southern European states such as Spain and Italy who following the drop of border controls many of whom look set to make the move to a better paying Britain both in terms of wages and benefits and in terms of the availability of low paid jobs.
Therefore this is a recipe for an immigration catastrophe because as many as 1 million Romanian and Bulgarian's could migrate to Britain over the next 2 years, far beyond anything that can be envisaged by that which is being reported of in the mainstream press of a high 50,000 per year, and it is very telling that the coalition government refuses to release the estimate of how many migrants will arrive during 2014 as the government chooses to keep their reports and estimates a secret from the people instead pretend not to have undertaken any study. One of the few politicians who has made a forecast is the Bulgarian Ambassador who forecasts just 8,000 per year when the actual number of Bulgarians is likely to be THIRTY TIMES official propaganda.
Thus it is highly probable that many of the future arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania will tend to be poor families who will seek to target Britains welfare system both in terms of benefits and tax credits for low paid workers as the level of poverty in the newest members states are at European extremes that the likes of the Roma communities have experienced in the former Czechoslovakia, in which case the calculations will be pretty easy for most migrants to make for why would a family subsisting in Romania or Bulgaria on less than 1/10th the resources that will be available in the UK not migrate whole families to Britain who will have the same rights as any British citizen for access to the whole host of services and benefits available from housing, hard cash, schools and the NHS. After all, if Britain's population could similarly attain an income that was near ten times the benefits cap of £26,000 in another european state (£260,000), then the UK would also likely witness a mass exodus of many benefits and low income families out of Britain.
And this does not take into account the Roma crime wave and civil disorder that may parts of Britain are experiencing that even a former Labour home secretary warns could result in riots during 2014.
Breaking the Back of Public Services
Public services such as health, housing and schools were already stretched to breaking point as a consequence of a decade of mass immigration and ongoing health tourism are now likely to effectively seize under the weight of the latest wave of as much as 1 million over the next 2 years as many hundreds of thousands of poor families will dump themselves at the feet of Britain's local councils and welfare state to home, feed, cloth and school in perpetuity that will prompt many hard working taxpayers to question exactly what are they being forced to pay taxes for because when they attempt to gain access to services they will experience much inertia.
UK Population Growth Trend Trajectory
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the graph below. However the actual trend trajectory as per the most recent population data into Mid 2012 suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 4 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to out of control immigration that translates into a population increase equivalent to 15 cities the size of Birmingham.
02 Aug 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030
Continuing out of control immigration looks set to have a huge impact on the UK housing market in terms of availability and prices so ensure you subscribe to my FREE newsletter to be in receipt of detailed trend forecasts for UK house prices for the next 5 years as well as to download my NEW Ebook UK Housing Market Forecast 2014 - 2018 (available from Mid Jan 2014).
Both Major Political Parties Support Immigration
Leaders and representatives of both major parties have been busy making statements promising to control immigration in the future, however these amount to nothing more than bare faced lies when one considers the real fundamental drivers for immigration because if the politicians were really serious about controlling immigration than it would already have been done!
Labour Supports unlimited immigration because the vast majority of immigrants will tend to vote Labour i.e. be politically left of centre, therefore Labour sees immigration ultimately in terms of hundreds of thousands of new Labour voters who will ensure further election victories. Labour's strategy has therefore been highly successful as in a little over 10 years it has changed many constituencies in favour of voting Labour to the point where it has become near impossible for the Conservatives to win elections with significant majorities such as the landslides achieved by Margaret Thatcher achieved during the 1980's.
Conservatives support immigration because it is highly profitable for their pay masters - big business, as the influx of migrant workers will tend to drive down wages for all workers thus deliver higher profits for business. Academic economists may rightly argue that by doing so businesses will ultimately erode their own profits as workers who earn less also spend less. However what academics fail to appreciate is that the state steps in to fill the gap by subsidising workers through tax credits and paying some 8 million people who are economically inactive all of which is funded by money conjured out of thin air i.e. government debt that is not backed by any economic activity that acts to inflate the economy, and thus corporate profits which are leveraged to inflation.
The Conservative led Coalition boasts that it has cut net migration by a third, but what they forget to mention is that only immigration from OUTSIDE of the EU has been cut i.e. many of whom would be highly skilled workers, who instead of being reliant on the state would have paid taxes. Additionally the Conservatives conveniently tend to forget that the Borders Agency has been an abysmal failure that routinely allows in many tens of thousands of illegal migrants every year.
Therefore one should realise that high net immigration is in the interests of both major political parties both in terms of votes and for those that bankroll the parties, which means neither Labour or Conservatives will actually do anything significant in respect of controlling immigration, so everything you are hearing in the mainstream media from the politicians such as Cameron promising a referendum in 2017, some 2 years AFTER the next election is purely smoke and mirrors BS to mislead the population into thinking that something will eventually be done about Britain's immigration crisis.
Yes each party may announce plenty of policies and massage figures in the run upto the next General election, but they will break ALL of their immigration promises just as they have done before because it is not in either main parties interests to control immigration.
Long Term Solution
A possible solution to Britain's immigration crisis is for politically corrupt eastern european countries such as Bulgaria and Romania to replicate the British political, legal, social and cultural system, therefore Britain rather than opening its doors instead Bulgaria and Romania should open their doors to hordes of British technocrats so that they can implement a blue print for constructing a modern democratic British colony, it's not as far fetched as it may sound as the euro-zone effectively replaced democratically elected governments with technocrats in several european countries such as Mario Monti's in Italy. The only stumbling block is will the corrupt eastern european politicians give up power?
Your analyst watching Elysium becoming manifest in Britain as the wealthy increasingly cordon themselves off from the over crowded and increasingly crime ridden chaotic rest.
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43802.html
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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Comments
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charlesmortlock
03 Jan 14, 12:11 |
elysium
helpful analysis, thankyou btw i watched elysium last night. i was wondering what effect if any a vote for scottish 'independence' would have ? |
