Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What Now for Janet Yellen?

Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank Dec 02, 2013 - 05:03 PM GMT

By: Matt_Machaj

Politics

"It deserves emphasis that a 6-1/2 percent unemployment rate and inflation one to two years ahead that is 1/2 percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent objective are thresholds for possible action, not triggers that will necessarily prompt an immediate increase in the FOMC's target rate."


Stepping aside by Bernanke remains a bit of a mystery, about which nobody cares. Why is he quitting his office? He was considered as the most competent man for the job - sophisticated money printing analyst, who is brilliant and capable of comprehending and directing Fed's special operations. Now, he shall be succeeded by another brilliant person, who believes in those operations. Why then change? Two possible answers arise. The first one - Bernanke is tired and has had enough. Not only the experience was exhausting, but also the criticism was stressful. The second one - Bernanke stopped believing in continuation of special operations, and was interested in stepping back. Since this was rejected as unacceptable, so he had to step back. Let us not forget that in his texts before he was chosen as the Fed's chairman he warned that the special operations may not work that well, because they could create a specific cocoon of various assets disconnected from the real pricing process (exactly what has happened!).

The certain fact is that Yellen is ready to continue with Fed's expansionary operations. Therefore no tapering on the horizon so far. More money printing means greater chance for gold price to rise in the coming years.

In discussing unconventional tools in the realms of zero interest rates Yellen indicated that tapering is not on the horizon as long as two key variables remain at specific level. If the unemployment rate stays over 6,5 percent and inflation does not reach levels permanently higher than 2 percent goal, then the Fed is staying on the same course. This is basically what Bernanke was suggesting, but with higher emphasis on those specific levels. Bernanke left some uncertainty in his statements. Yellen is clear: we print until unemployment is over 6.5 and as long as the official inflation rate does not reach unacceptable levels.

Actually even more, because she highlighted that under those conditions Fed's action is only "possible", and not automatic. Seeing her concern about labor markets, it can mean that even if the official rate stays below 6.5 percent, then the Fed could still go on.

Yellen believes in the classical Keynesian framework: spending keeps the economy going. As long as the inflation rate is not running away, we should keep adding more money. If there is no direct inflationary pressure, and the economy is in recession, then spending is too low.

Well, this is all good news for gold bugs. If the central banker can do something for them, I guess the best way is to run the printing press.

Thank you.

The above is based on the November Market Overview report. We have just posted the December issue entitled "Tapering is not Tightening: Decomposition of Tapering" in which we discuss why tapering is not the same thing as tightening, why tapering has already happened in 2010 and what kind of tapering can actually take place. If you're interested in the above and their implications on precious metals and your portfolio, we invite you to subscribe and read the latest Market Overview report.

Matt Machaj, PhD

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Gold Market Overview at SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matt Machaj, PhD and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matt Machaj, PhD and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Matt Machaj, PhD is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matt Machaj’s, PhD reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matt Machaj, PhD, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in