Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

What Can We Infer From the Crude Oil Price to Oil Stocks Ratio?

Commodities / Crude Oil Nov 05, 2013 - 05:40 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

The first days of the new month have been hard for oil bulls. After the breakdown below the lower border of the declining trend channel the buyers didn’t manage to stop oil bears. The bears showed their claws on Thursday and pushed the price below the October low. This event resulted in a heavy decline, which took light crude below $95. On top of that, yesterday we saw further deterioration and crude oil dropped to a new monthly low of $94.06.


The selloff in crude oil has been fueled by rising U.S. stockpiles, which have climbed roughly 8% over the past six weeks as refiners have curbed their crude processing amid seasonal maintenance work and waning gasoline demand. Last Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose by another 4.1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 25. Total inventories now stand at 383.9 million barrels and government data this week could show that stockpiles finished October at their highest level since 1930.

Taking the above into account, we can conclude that crude oil has traded lower as traders view the market as adequately supplied. Even output declines in OPEC member Libya, home to Africa’s largest oil reserves, have not contributed much upside to oil prices.

Yesterday, light crude extended losses as ongoing concerns over rising U.S. inventories and weaker demand in the world's largest oil consumer drove prices lower. In this way, the price dropped to a new four-month low of $94.06. Taking this fact into account, investors are probably wondering where the final bottom of the current correction is.

In today’s essay we take a closer look at the chart of crude oil from the medium term perspective to see if there’s anything on the horizon that could drive the price of light crude higher (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com).

Looking at the above chart, we see that the price of crude oil declined once again in the previous week and dropped below $95. Yesterday, we saw further deterioration and light crude hit a new monthly low of $94.06. In this way crude oil slipped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire June 2012-August 2013 rally. However, the breakdown is not confirmed at the moment. With this downward move the price reached the medium-term support line based on the September 2012 and January 2013 highs. If this support line encourages oil bulls to act, we may see a pullback in the near future. On the other hand, if they fail and crude oil declines once again, the next target for the sellers will be the medium-term rising support line based on the June 2012 and April 2013 lows (currently around $93 per barrel). From this perspective further decline seems limited.

Having discussed the medium-term outlook for crude oil and oil stocks, let’s move on to
the oil to oil stocks ratio. Is it possible that will give us some interesting clues?

Looking at the above chart, we clearly see that from the end of August the ratio has declined and reached the long-term support line in the recent days. Additionally, the RSI dropped to its lowest level since June 2012 and now it’s extremely oversold.

Back then, such a low value of the indicator had a positive impact on light crude. After the RSI moved below the 30 level, we saw a pullback in the ratio in the following days. What’s interesting, this increase coincided with higher prices of light crude.

When we take a closer look at the above chart, we clearly see that there have been many similar situations in the past. In October 2012 and then in November a pullback in the ratio triggered a pullback in crude oil. Earlier this year, we saw such price action too. In March,       when the RSI dropped below the 30 level and then moved higher, we also saw increases in the ratio and in crude oil.

In June, the ratio dropped below the short-term declining support line based on the November 2012 and March 2013 lows, but this deterioration was only temporary. In the following days, we noticed a sharp pullback, which pushed higher not only the ratio, but also light crude. Back then, it resulted in the June-August rally.

As mentioned earlier, in the recent days, the ratio has dropped to the long-term support line, which is an important support level. Taking into account the price action that we’ve seen in the past, it seems that a bigger pullback in crude oil is just around the corner. If history repeats itself once again, higher levels of the ratio will likely trigger a pullback in crude oil in the following days as well.

Summing up, although the situation is bearish from the medium-term point of view, light crude almost reached the medium-term support line, which may trigger a bigger pullback. Additionally, the oil to oil stocks ratio is at an extreme low, as indicated by the RSI. This could very well result in the end of the underperformance and strong performance of crude oil.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules